10% — Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Nov 1, 2026
Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 10% · Kalshi 10% · 4 contracts · $142K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 01:57:45 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 14% chance that federal legislation mandating proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration will become law before January 1, 2027. The low probability reflects the compressed timeline—only 171 days remain—combined with the legislative hurdles required to pass and sign such a bill. Congress would need to prioritize this measure, achieve floor time, and secure passage in both chambers, then secure presidential signature. The probability rises slightly (to 5%) for a December 1 deadline, suggesting modest trader belief in late-year movement. Key drivers are congressional control, partisan appetite for voting regulation, and whether this becomes an election-year priority. The 2024 election cycle and ongoing voter eligibility debates create political momentum, but Senate filibuster rules and procedural constraints limit speed of passage.

Key factors:
- Congressional calendar capacity: Both chambers must allocate floor time between now and early January 2027, competing with appropriations, defense bills, and other priority legislation
- Senate filibuster threshold: In the current Senate, a voting rights measure would likely require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, a supermajority rarely achieved on contested election law
- Divided partisan stakes: Republican-led House efforts face Democratic Senate opposition; resolution depends on whether a compromise version could emerge
- Presidential alignment: The bill requires executive signature; current administration's position and veto likelihood directly constrains probability
- State-level precursor activity: Early action in state legislatures or court challenges to existing voter registration practices could signal federal legislative intent

Contracts:
- Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 10¢ Kalshi $118K (weight 83%)
- Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 9¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 4%)
- Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 7¢ Kalshi $13K (weight 9%)
- Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 5¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 3%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T01:20:52.395Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/electionbill
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20legislation%20that%20requires%20proof%20of%20U.S.%20citizenship%20as%20a%20condition%20of%20registering%20to%20vote%20in%20federal%20elections%20become%20law%20before%20Nov%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev