28% — Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Jul 1, 2026
Leader: Before Nov 4, 2026 at 28% · Kalshi 28% · 2 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This question asks whether President Trump will declare a national emergency regarding the 2026 midterm elections before July 1, 2026—roughly two months away. The 39% probability reflects meaningful but not dominant market expectation of such an action. The probability is driven by Trump's historical willingness to invoke emergency powers and rhetoric around election integrity concerns, balanced against institutional and legal constraints on emergency declarations. The cross-venue gap (Polymarket at 52% vs Kalshi at 38%) suggests disagreement about how seriously to weight Trump's recent statements and actions on election matters. The resolution clock is short: any executive action on this specific topic would need to occur within the next 60 days, making this a near-term event where market participants are pricing in elevated but uncertain odds based on current political dynamics and Trump's demonstrated executive approach.

Key factors:
- Trump has issued emergency declarations on non-traditional issues previously, establishing a precedent for expansive use of emergency powers
- A national emergency declaration on elections would face immediate legal challenges and potential congressional objections that create institutional friction
- No major midterm election-related crisis or event has occurred to date that would typically trigger emergency declarations
- Trump's public statements and administrative actions on election topics between now and July 1 will likely shift market probabilities significantly
- The 14-percentage-point gap between venues suggests material disagreement about the interpretation of Trump's recent communications and intent

Contracts:
- Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?: Before Nov 4, 2026 — 28¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 95%)
- Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 13¢ Kalshi $61 (weight 5%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.616Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "28% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/electionemergency
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump%20issue%20any%20executive%20action%20on%20declaring%20a%20national%20emergency%20regarding%20the%202026%20United%20States%20midterm%20election%20before%20Jul%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev