37% — Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Jul 1, 2026
Leader: Before Nov 4, 2026 at 37% · Kalshi 37% · 2 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 01:59:38 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market prices the likelihood that Donald Trump will issue an executive action declaring a national emergency related to the 2026 midterm election before November 4, 2026. At 29%, the probability reflects significant uncertainty about whether such an action would occur during the election cycle. The current level suggests traders view this as unlikely but plausible, potentially influenced by Trump's stated concerns about election integrity and his demonstrated willingness to invoke emergency powers. The probability would likely move based on Trump's public statements about the midterms, any legal or political pressure he faces, and the proximity to election day itself. The gap between the 30-cent price for a November deadline and 6 cents for a September deadline indicates traders expect any such action, if taken, would come closer to the election.

Key factors:
- Trump's public statements about 2026 election integrity or security concerns between now and November 4, 2026
- Whether Trump's legal situation (ongoing cases and convictions) changes in ways affecting his political strategy before the midterms
- Historical precedent: Trump invoked national emergency powers at least once during his presidency; analysts should assess whether current political conditions make such invocation more or less likely
- The Republican Party's electoral prospects heading into the midterms; stronger polling could reduce incentives for emergency declarations, while weaker polling might increase them
- Specific triggering events or alleged security incidents related to the 2026 election that Trump publicly connects to potential emergency action

Contracts:
- Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?: Before Nov 4, 2026 — 37¢ Kalshi $924 (weight 67%)
- Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 17¢ Kalshi $452 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T01:20:50.982Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/electionemergency
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump%20issue%20any%20executive%20action%20on%20declaring%20a%20national%20emergency%20regarding%20the%202026%20United%20States%20midterm%20election%20before%20Jul%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev