31% — Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jun 1, 2026
Leader: Before Jun 1, 2027 at 31% · Kalshi 31% · 2 contracts · $2 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 07:34:31 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Venezuela will hold a presidential election before June 1, 2027—a span of roughly 12 months from now. At 45%, it indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether the government will proceed with scheduled elections or delay them. Key factors driving this level include the political instability following Venezuela's disputed 2024 elections, international pressure for democratic processes, and the government's recent track record of postponing or heavily controlling electoral timelines. The most immediate catalyst is whether the National Electoral Council announces a confirmed date and begins logistical preparations in the coming months. Market pricing reflects genuine doubt: shorter timeframes like September 2026 trade much lower (3¢), suggesting traders view imminent elections as unlikely, while the January 2027 outcome at 12¢ indicates the window is being priced as moderately unlikely even with more time.

Key factors:
- The Venezuelan government's demonstrated willingness to delay or postpone elections since the contested 2024 presidential vote, versus international pressure and opposition demands for timely electoral processes
- Confirmation or announcement by Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE) of specific election dates and administrative preparations, which would be a concrete signal of intent to proceed
- Economic and security conditions within Venezuela that could either trigger government decisions to hold elections or create instability that leads to postponement
- The degree of international observation and pressure from regional organizations and foreign governments, which may influence the timeline
- Recent statements or policy signals from Venezuelan government leadership regarding their electoral calendar and intentions for 2026-2027

Contracts:
- Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jun 1, 2027?: Before Jun 1, 2027 — 31¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 100%)
- Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T07:20:52.217Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/electvenezuela
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Venezuela%20hold%20a%20presidential%20election%20before%20Jun%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev