56% — Will over 1.5 goals be scored Kalshi 56% · 12 contracts · $83 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-27 06:21:05 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 6% probability that more than 1.5 goals will be scored in an upcoming match. The extremely low probability suggests expectations of either a low-scoring contest, defensive matchups, or teams with limited offensive capability. Market participants are pricing in a strong likelihood of 0-1 goals total. Key drivers include team form, defensive strength, and recent scoring patterns. The resolution depends on the actual goal count when the match concludes. The 0.5-goal contract trading at 22¢ (versus 17¢ for over 1.5) indicates moderately elevated odds of at least one goal being scored, but a sharp drop-off in probability once crossing the 1.5 threshold suggests minimal confidence in higher-scoring outcomes. Key factors: - Recent head-to-head records between the teams show a trend toward low-scoring matches or defensive play - Combined team offensive output this season is below average compared to peers in their competition - Defensive injuries, suspensions, or tactical shifts announced in the week preceding the match could shift expectations - The spread between 0.5 and 1.5 goal probabilities (22¢ vs 17¢) indicates market consensus clusters around 0-1 goal range rather than 2+ - Weather conditions, venue characteristics, or match timing (e.g., early season fixture) may constrain typical scoring patterns Contracts: - Will over 0.5 goals be scored?: Over 0.5 goals scored — 93¢ Kalshi $83 (weight 100%) - Will over 1.5 goals be scored?: Over 1.5 goals scored — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will over 2.5 goals be scored?: Over 2.5 goals scored — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will over 3.5 goals be scored?: Over 3.5 goals scored — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will over 4.5 goals be scored?: Over 4.5 goals scored — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will over 5.5 goals be scored?: Over 5.5 goals scored — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will over 0.5 goals be scored?: Over 0.5 goals scored — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will over 1.5 goals be scored?: Over 1.5 goals scored — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-21T19:20:51.519Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "56% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/eliteserientotal Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20over%201.5%20goals%20be%20scored Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev