33% — Elon Musk Net Worth on April 30?: 670b+
Kalshi 33% · 1 contracts · $2K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 12:20:02 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract estimates a 28% probability that Elon Musk's net worth will exceed $670 billion by April 30, 2026—just two days away. The probability reflects uncertainty about Tesla's stock price movement and broader market conditions in the final days before settlement. Musk's wealth is primarily concentrated in Tesla equity, so the outcome hinges almost entirely on where Tesla shares trade by market close on April 30. The cross-venue gap suggests traders on Kalshi (34% average) view the threshold as more achievable than those on Polymarket (18% average), likely reflecting different interpretations of recent Tesla price action and end-of-month volatility patterns. With resolution occurring in 48 hours, any significant market movements or company announcements could substantially shift probabilities in the final trading session.

Key factors:
- Tesla stock price on April 29-30, 2026 and intraday volatility patterns will directly determine whether Musk's net worth crosses $670 billion
- The current market price of Tesla shares relative to historical valuations of Musk's known equity holdings determines the baseline net worth calculation
- Any earnings announcements, regulatory filings, or major company news released between now and April 30 could create price momentum in either direction
- The 16 percentage-point gap between venues suggests disagreement about whether recent Tesla trading patterns favor the higher threshold
- Settlement will depend on publicly available net worth estimates from recognized financial data providers on or around April 30

Contracts:
- Will Musk have a net worth more than 1400 billion dollars before 2027?: More than $1.4 trillion — 33¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T11:20:49.679Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/elon-musk-net-worth-april-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Elon%20Musk%20Net%20Worth%20on%20April%2030%3F%3A%20670b%2B
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev