51% — What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th Leader: Cursor at 51% · Kalshi 51% · 12 contracts · $45K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 00:11:38 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes. Why this matters: This prediction measures the probability that Elon Musk will discuss artificial intelligence or machine learning topics during a SpaceX earnings call scheduled for August 4th, 2026. The 83% probability reflects strong market confidence that AI will be a focal point of his remarks. This high level likely reflects Musk's consistent emphasis on AI across his companies and SpaceX's integration of autonomous systems in rocket operations. The probability could shift based on whether the call proceeds as scheduled and Musk's actual remarks during the event. The call itself, if held on August 4th, serves as the concrete resolution event. Secondary topics like satellite operations and Starbase development are priced substantially lower, suggesting traders view AI as the dominant likely topic relative to other operational areas Musk might emphasize. Key factors: - Musk has publicly prioritized AI development at his companies; historical statements on autonomous systems and machine learning suggest consistent messaging patterns - SpaceX's operational reliance on autonomous flight systems and landing procedures makes AI a technically relevant topic for earnings discussion - The 83% contract price substantially exceeds secondary outcomes (63% for satellites, 52% for Colossus), indicating concentrated market conviction rather than distributed expectations - The earnings call is scheduled for August 4th, 2026—today's date—meaning resolution occurs imminently through direct observation of the call's content - Recent 24-hour trading volume of $2,993 on the leading contract suggests active reassessment of probabilities near the resolution date Contracts: - What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: Cursor — 51¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 12%) - What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: Tesla — 50¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 7%) - What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: Nvidia — 40¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 17%) - What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: ISS / International Space Station — 36¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 4%) - What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: Anthropic / OpenAI — 30¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%) - What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: Artemis — 25¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%) - What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: Colossus — 15¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 11%) - What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: Consciousness — 15¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 6%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-05T20:20:53.436Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/elonmention Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Elon%20Musk%20say%20during%20SpaceX%20Earnings%20Call%20originally%20scheduled%20for%20August%204th Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev