91% — Will the Fed cut rates 2 times at emergency meetings Leader: 0 cuts at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 3 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 13:13:35 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates an 84% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice at unscheduled emergency meetings before the end of 2026. The high probability reflects market expectations of significant economic deterioration or financial stress severe enough to trigger extraordinary policy action outside the Fed's regular meeting schedule. Typical drivers would be recession signals, labor market collapse, or financial instability. The market contrasts sharply with related contracts showing only 46% probability of any rate cuts by year-end and 54% probability of zero cuts, suggesting traders see emergency cuts as more likely than gradual easing in normal meetings. The next scheduled Fed meeting is June 17-18, 2026, though emergency action could occur anytime if conditions warrant. Key upcoming data points include employment reports, inflation metrics, and any financial market stress signals through mid-2026. Key factors: - The 84% probability for emergency cuts conflicts with only 46% probability for any cuts by year-end, indicating markets price emergency action as more likely than standard policy easing - Related contracts show 54% odds of zero rate cuts all year, creating logical tension with 84% odds of two emergency cuts specifically - June 2026 meeting contract shows only 4¢ ($0.04) implied probability of a 25bps cut at the scheduled meeting, suggesting markets expect emergency action outside regular calendars - Volume concentration in the 46¢ general-cuts contract ($4,734 24h vol) vastly exceeds contracts for specific emergency scenarios ($2,339 vol on zero-cuts), indicating lower conviction among traders on emergency-meeting specifications - Economic data through May 2026 would need to show substantial deterioration or financial instability to justify emergency Fed action, which remains outside baseline forecast scenarios Contracts: - Will the Fed cut rates 0 times at emergency meetings?: 0 cuts — 91¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 79%) - Will the Fed cut rates 1 times at emergency meetings?: 1 cuts — 5¢ Kalshi $265 (weight 13%) - Will the Fed cut rates 2 times at emergency meetings?: 2 cuts — 3¢ Kalshi $165 (weight 8%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T12:20:51.180Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/emercuts Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Fed%20cut%20rates%202%20times%20at%20emergency%20meetings Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev