25% — Will Quinta Brunson win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards
Kalshi 25% · 4 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-28 13:33:00 UTC

Why this matters:
This 21% probability indicates the estimated chance that Quinta Brunson wins the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 ceremony. Her relatively modest odds reflect a competitive field in this category. The probability is shaped by factors including recent Emmy voting patterns, critical recognition of her performance in Abbott Elementary, and competition from other strong contenders—particularly Jean Smart, who currently shows 85¢ implied probability. The resolution date approaches in late August or early September 2026 when Emmy voters submit their ballots and results are announced. Brunson's odds could shift based on any awards momentum from earlier ceremonies, changes in the shows' critical reception, or updates to industry predictions closer to voting.

Key factors:
- Jean Smart at 85¢ represents the market's clear frontrunner, leaving 15¢ combined for all other candidates including Brunson's 21¢
- Brunson's Abbott Elementary has maintained consistent recognition patterns in past Emmy cycles; historical voting data would indicate whether her share of nominations translates to higher win probability
- Lisa Kudrow at 7¢ shows modest market interest despite her established Emmy history, suggesting recency of performance may weigh heavily in voter decisions
- The 24-hour volume concentration ($312 in the Kudrow contract versus under $50 in most others) indicates limited recent betting activity on Brunson specifically
- Brunson's probability movements would correlate with critical reviews or nominations from other major awards ceremonies earlier in the season

Contracts:
- Will Jean Smart win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Jean Smart — 89¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 52%)
- Will Lisa Kudrow win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Lisa Kudrow — 5¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 44%)
- Will Elle Fanning win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Elle Fanning — 3¢ Kalshi $151 (weight 4%)
- Will Quinta Brunson win Comedy Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Quinta Brunson — 4¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 1%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-08-28T13:21:17.773Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/emmycactr
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Quinta%20Brunson%20win%20Comedy%20Actress%20at%20the%20Emmy%20Awards
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev