14% — How many awards will Hacks win at the 78th Emmy Awards Leader: Exactly 5 at 14% · Kalshi 14% · 6 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 00:00:00 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: This represents a 15% probability that HBO's Hacks will win exactly 7 Emmy Awards at the 78th Emmy Awards ceremony. The current market pricing reflects uncertainty about the show's competitive position relative to other nominees in multiple categories. The primary drivers of this estimate are the show's historical Emmy performance, the strength of competing shows this year, and how many categories voters view it as competitive in. The ceremony itself, scheduled for September 2026, will definitively resolve this outcome when award winners are announced. Between now and then, any major shifts in critical reception or industry sentiment could move these odds, though the distributed probabilities across multiple specific win-count outcomes suggest traders see substantial uncertainty around the final tally. Key factors: - Hacks has multiple top-contract price points ranging from 7 to 18 wins, with no single outcome commanding more than 5 cents, indicating high disagreement among traders about the likely outcome - The leading contract at exactly 7 wins trades at only 15%, suggesting that even the most likely specific outcome is viewed as unlikely in absolute terms - Competing show outcomes like The Pitt at exactly 14 wins also trade at low single-digit probabilities, indicating a fragmented field across multiple contenders - Market liquidity is relatively modest ($84-$50 24-hour volume on top contracts), suggesting limited participant activity may be influencing price formation - The September 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony will provide a definitive resolution, with all nominated shows' final award counts determined by voting outcomes Contracts: - How many awards will Hacks win at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Exactly 5 — 14¢ Kalshi $410 (weight 29%) - How many awards will Pluribus win at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Exactly 3 — 11¢ Kalshi $85 (weight 6%) - How many awards will DTF St. Louis win at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Exactly 8 — 10¢ Kalshi $252 (weight 18%) - How many awards will Hacks win at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Exactly 4 — 8¢ Kalshi $194 (weight 14%) - How many awards will Hacks win at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Exactly 6 — 4¢ Kalshi $176 (weight 12%) - How many awards will Widow's Bay win at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Exactly 7 — 3¢ Kalshi $315 (weight 22%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-12T23:20:48.974Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/emmycount Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20awards%20will%20Hacks%20win%20at%20the%2078th%20Emmy%20Awards Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev