11% — Will Harrison Ford win Comedy Supporting Actor  at the Emmy Awards
Kalshi 11% · 11 contracts · $155 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:20:54 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Harrison Ford will receive a Comedy Supporting Actor Emmy nomination and win the award in 2026. Ford is 83 years old and has not appeared in television comedies in recent years, which weighs heavily against this outcome. The low probability suggests traders view this as an unlikely scenario, given the typical pool of comedic supporting actors who compete in this category. The 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony, scheduled for September, will definitively resolve this contract. Major factors include whether Ford accepts a prominent comedic TV role before nomination eligibility closes, whether he generates sufficient industry momentum for a nomination, and how competitive the supporting actor field becomes that year. Current market activity shows minimal trading volume, indicating limited conviction among participants.

Key factors:
- Harrison Ford has not appeared in a television comedy series in over two decades, with his recent work concentrated on film franchises
- Ford would need to secure a prominent supporting comedic role in a qualifying series that airs between June 2025 and May 2026 to be eligible
- The Comedy Supporting Actor category typically features ensemble cast members from high-profile network or streaming comedies, not recently retired film actors
- Emmy voters historically favor recurring cast members with established comedic chemistry rather than one-off or guest appearances
- The 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony in September will determine the actual winner; nomination announcements occur in July

Contracts:
- Will Harrison Ford win Comedy Supporting Actor  at the Emmy Awards?: Harrison Ford — 56¢ Kalshi $155 (weight 100%)
- Will Michael Urie win Comedy Supporting Actor  at the Emmy Awards?: Michael Urie — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Paul W. Downs win Comedy Supporting Actor  at the Emmy Awards?: Paul W. Downs — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Ebon Moss-Bachrach win Comedy Supporting Actor  at the Emmy Awards?: Ebon Moss-Bachrach — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Tyler James Williams win Comedy Supporting Actor  at the Emmy Awards?: Tyler James Williams — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bowen Yang win Comedy Supporting Actor  at the Emmy Awards?: Bowen Yang — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Nick Offerman win Comedy Supporting Actor  at the Emmy Awards?: Nick Offerman — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Marcello Hernandez win Comedy Supporting Actor  at the Emmy Awards?: Marcello Hernandez — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 3 more

Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/emmycsacto
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Harrison%20Ford%20win%20Comedy%20Supporting%20Actor%20%20at%20the%20Emmy%20Awards
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev