17% — Will Harrison Ford win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards Kalshi 17% · 6 contracts · $571 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-11 10:19:26 UTC Why this matters: This market reflects an estimated 17% probability that Harrison Ford wins the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series. The prediction aggregates trading activity across multiple contracts, with Ford currently priced higher than other competing actors. The Emmy Awards typically air in September, and the nomination announcement occurs earlier in the summer, which would provide crucial information about the actual field of contenders. Ford's chances depend on whether he receives a nomination, the strength of competing performances that year, and voting patterns among Emmy voters. The relatively modest probability suggests traders view Ford as a notable contender but not a frontrunner compared to other possibilities. The resolution of this market will ultimately depend on voting results from the Television Academy in September 2026. Key factors: - Harrison Ford must first receive an Emmy nomination for this outcome to occur; nomination announcements typically precede the awards ceremony by several weeks - The 17% probability implies trading activity sees Ford as competitive but not favored compared to the field of other potential nominees and winners - Current trading volume of $311 in 24 hours on Ford's contract is substantially higher than competing candidates, suggesting concentrated market interest in his chances - The Emmy Awards ceremony is scheduled for September 2026, providing the resolution date for determining the actual winner - Historical Emmy voting patterns in comedy categories show support can shift based on campaign visibility, critical reception, and voter familiarity with nominated performances Contracts: - Will Harrison Ford win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Harrison Ford — 44¢ Kalshi $385 (weight 67%) - Will Paul W. Downs win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Paul W. Downs — 9¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 18%) - Will Stephen Root win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Stephen Root — 35¢ Kalshi $86 (weight 15%) - Will Michael Urie win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Michael Urie — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tie win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Tie — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tyler James Williams win Comedy Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Tyler James Williams — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T09:20:49.312Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/emmycsacto Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Harrison%20Ford%20win%20Comedy%20Supporting%20Actor%20%20at%20the%20Emmy%20Awards Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev