25% — Will Carol Burnett win Comedy Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards
Kalshi 25% · 4 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 03:41:49 UTC

Why this matters:
This 21% probability reflects market expectations that Carol Burnett will win the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series. The current odds place her as a moderate contender among several candidates, with Hannah Einbinder commanding the largest share at 55%, suggesting she is viewed as the frontrunner. Burnett's positioning reflects her experience and cultural prominence, though the fragmented market—where no single candidate captures overwhelming probability—indicates genuine uncertainty about voter preferences. The Emmy Awards typically air in September, and nomination announcements in July provide crucial information that would significantly shift these probabilities. Voter composition, campaign momentum following nominations, and recent episode performance from competing shows will likely determine final outcomes. The relatively low trading volume across all contracts suggests limited market conviction overall.

Key factors:
- Carol Burnett's nomination status and whether her show remains in active Emmy consideration through voting
- Direct performance comparison against Hannah Einbinder (55% leader) and other named competitors in recent episodes
- Emmy voters' historical preferences for comedic supporting performances and whether Burnett's work aligns with recent voting patterns
- Timing and impact of official Emmy nominations (typically early July), which would provide definitive information on the eligible candidate pool
- Total number of eligible competing actresses in the category and whether split voting advantages or disadvantages Burnett relative to front-runners

Contracts:
- Will Kate O'Flynn win Comedy Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Kate O'Flynn — 66¢ Kalshi $897 (weight 76%)
- Will Janelle James win Comedy Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Janelle James — 3¢ Kalshi $234 (weight 20%)
- Will Hannah Einbinder win Comedy Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Hannah Einbinder — 27¢ Kalshi $44 (weight 4%)
- Will Tie win Comedy Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Tie — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-01T19:20:52.568Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/emmycsactr
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Carol%20Burnett%20win%20Comedy%20Supporting%20Actress%20at%20the%20Emmy%20Awards
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev