13% — Will Billy Crudup win Drama Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards Kalshi 13% · 8 contracts · $82 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-28 10:44:38 UTC Why this matters: This represents a 16% chance that Billy Crudup will win the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series at the 2026 ceremony. The probability reflects his position among competing actors in what is typically a competitive category. Key factors driving this level include the strength of competing nominees, his recent television visibility and critical reception, and historical voting patterns in the Supporting Actor category. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the Emmy nominations announcement, which determines the official field of competitors. Crudup's chances could shift significantly based on which other actors receive nominations, critical momentum heading into voting, and voter preferences among the eligible pool. Television Academy voting patterns have historically favored performers with strong ensemble casts and recent acclaimed work. Key factors: - Billy Crudup's eligibility depends on his television appearances in the 2025-2026 Emmy eligibility window and the specific series considered - The competitive density of the Supporting Actor in Drama category typically includes 6-8 strong contenders, affecting individual probability floors - Emmy voting is determined by Television Academy members, with historical bias toward recent high-profile dramatic performances and ensemble casts - Nomination announcement timing and the specific slate of competitors will materially shift probability estimates - Crudup's visibility in major dramatic productions during the eligibility period directly correlates with critic recognition and voter awareness Contracts: - Will Tom Pelphrey win Drama Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Tom Pelphrey — 43¢ Kalshi $76 (weight 93%) - Will Gerran Howell win Drama Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Gerran Howell — 5¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 7%) - Will Shawn Hatosy win Drama Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Shawn Hatosy — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Patrick Ball win Drama Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Patrick Ball — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Billy Crudup win Drama Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Billy Crudup — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jack Lowden win Drama Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Jack Lowden — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Carlos-Manuel Vesga win Drama Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Carlos-Manuel Vesga — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tie win Drama Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Tie — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-28T10:20:57.298Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/emmydsacto Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Billy%20Crudup%20win%20Drama%20Supporting%20Actor%20at%20the%20Emmy%20Awards Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev