15% — Will Karolina Wydra win Drama Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards Kalshi 15% · 7 contracts · $713 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 01:52:04 UTC Why this matters: This represents a 16% chance that Karolina Wydra will win the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series at the upcoming ceremony. The probability reflects her position as a secondary contender in a competitive field, where Katherine LaNasa currently leads at 61 cents. Wydra's chances depend on her visibility in award campaigns, the strength of her performance reception from critics and Emmy voters, and how her modest contract price (3 cents) compares to the actual voting patterns when ballots are cast. The Emmy Awards ceremony will settle this market once the winner is announced, making the actual voting outcome the decisive factor that will resolve all uncertainty about the competing candidates. Key factors: - Wydra's current contract price of 3 cents implies approximately 3% direct probability, but aggregated data shows 16%, indicating significant discrepancy between individual contract pricing and combined assessment - Katherine LaNasa holds 61 cents across the field, suggesting she is the frontrunner by substantial margin, which reduces probability space available for other candidates - Emmy voting is restricted to the Television Academy's membership in relevant categories, making voter sentiment and campaign visibility concrete determinants of outcome - The other named candidates (Emilia Jones at 5 cents, Julianne Nicholson at 5 cents) provide reference points for relative competitive positioning within the supporting actress category - Actual Emmy Award results will be determined at the scheduled Emmy ceremony, representing the single binary event that resolves all uncertainty in this market Contracts: - Will Sepideh Moafi win Drama Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Sepideh Moafi — 14¢ Kalshi $655 (weight 92%) - Will Katherine LaNasa win Drama Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Katherine LaNasa — 61¢ Kalshi $55 (weight 8%) - Will Allison Janney win Drama Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Allison Janney — 6¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%) - Will Karolina Wydra win Drama Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Karolina Wydra — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Julianne Nicholson win Drama Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Julianne Nicholson — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Taylor Dearden win Drama Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Taylor Dearden — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tie win Drama Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Tie — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T00:20:49.033Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/emmydsactr Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Karolina%20Wydra%20win%20Drama%20Supporting%20Actress%20at%20the%20Emmy%20Awards Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev