11% — Will Pluribus win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards Kalshi 11% · 11 contracts · $25 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:29 UTC Why this matters: This 22% probability reflects the likelihood that Pluribus wins the Emmy Award for Outstanding Drama Series. The outcome depends primarily on the strength of competing shows' critical reception and voting patterns within the Television Academy's membership. Emmy voting typically heavily weights critical acclaim, viewership during the eligibility period, and historical academy preferences. The main catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the Emmy Awards ceremony scheduled for September 2026, when academy voters cast their final ballots. Shifts in the probability before then would likely reflect changes in critical consensus, awards season momentum from other ceremonies (like the Golden Globes or SAG Awards in early 2026), or significant viewership data from competing dramas during the eligibility window. Key factors: - Pluribus's average critical ratings compared to other nominated dramas during the 2025-2026 eligibility period - Historical Emmy voting patterns showing which drama categories favor new shows versus returning series - Performance of competing dramas at earlier awards ceremonies (Golden Globes, SAG Awards, Critics Choice Awards) - Total viewership and social media engagement metrics for Pluribus relative to nominated competitors - Emmy Academy demographic composition and voting bloc preferences that may favor certain genre or network characteristics Contracts: - Will Pluribus win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards?: Pluribus — 17¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 88%) - Will The Pitt win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards?: The Pitt — 61¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 12%) - Will Euphoria win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards?: Euphoria — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Industry win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards?: Industry — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards?: A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will The Morning Show win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards?: The Morning Show — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Paradise win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards?: Paradise — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Slow Horses win Drama Series at the Emmy Awards?: Slow Horses — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:49.150Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/emmydseries Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Pluribus%20win%20Drama%20Series%20at%20the%20Emmy%20Awards Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev