18% — Will Richard Gadd win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards Kalshi 18% · 6 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-28 14:09:32 UTC Why this matters: This probability estimates a 12% chance that Richard Gadd wins the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Movie Series. The market assessment reflects several competing actors in the category, with Matthew Rhys currently the market favorite at 47%, followed by Oscar Isaac at 23%. Gadd's relatively lower probability may reflect competition from more established names or fewer visible campaign efforts at this stage. Key factors driving the probability include critical reception and nomination prospects for Gadd's recent work, the strength of competing performances in the eligible period, Emmy voter preferences for different genres and networks, and how industry momentum develops between now and Emmy voting. The Emmy nominations are typically announced in July, which will provide clarity on whether Gadd is even nominated—a critical threshold that would substantially affect this outcome's likelihood. Key factors: - Emmy nominations announcement (typically July 2026) determines eligibility and eliminates uncertainty for non-nominated actors - Matthew Rhys maintains 3.9x higher market probability than Gadd, suggesting baseline assessment of comparative competitiveness - Oscar Isaac and other major-name competitors command 23 cents despite similar category structure, indicating market weights actor reputation and campaign visibility - Richard Gadd's recent television work reception and critical acclaim relative to competing nominated performances in the eligible window - Total contract volume of $382 in 24-hour trading on top contracts suggests limited liquidity and potentially wide probability ranges across different estimators Contracts: - Will Matthew Rhys win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Matthew Rhys — 17¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 86%) - Will Oscar Isaac win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Oscar Isaac — 68¢ Kalshi $236 (weight 14%) - Will Riz Ahmed win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Riz Ahmed — 8¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 0%) - Will Charlie Hunnam win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Charlie Hunnam — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jason Bateman win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Jason Bateman — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tie win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Tie — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-28T13:21:13.684Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/emmylimitedacto Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Richard%20Gadd%20win%20Movie%2FLimited%20Actor%20at%20the%20Emmy%20Awards Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev