11% — Will Richard Gadd win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards Kalshi 11% · 10 contracts · $31 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 10:35:57 UTC Why this matters: This represents a 26% chance that Richard Gadd wins the Outstanding Short Form Comedy or Drama Series acting category at the 2026 Emmy Awards. The probability reflects Gadd's modest track record in major awards competitions, offset by his recent high-profile work on "Baby Reindeer." The current level suggests market participants view him as a viable but not favored contender. The main uncertainties are whether "Baby Reindeer" maintains cultural momentum through Emmy voting season and how competitive the field becomes as networks submit their strongest performers. The Emmy nominations will be announced in July 2026, which will clarify whether Gadd receives a nomination and reveal his competition. Resolution occurs at the Emmy Awards ceremony, scheduled for September 2026. Key factors: - Gadd's "Baby Reindeer" was a Netflix global success in 2024, but momentum for year-old content may have faded by Emmy voting in mid-2026 - The Outstanding Limited Series Actor category historically favors established award-circuit participants with multiple major nominations - Emmy voters typically submit nominees by May-June 2026, providing the first concrete signal of whether Gadd advances beyond speculation - No prior Emmy, Golden Globe, or SAG Award nominations visible in Gadd's history, suggesting limited name recognition among voters - The 26% probability places him below established contenders (Noah Wyle at 76%) but above marginal candidates, indicating genuine consideration among market participants Contracts: - Will Matthew Rhys win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Matthew Rhys — 31¢ Kalshi $31 (weight 100%) - Will Charlie Hunnam win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Charlie Hunnam — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Cillian Murphy win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Cillian Murphy — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jamie Bell win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Jamie Bell — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jason Bateman win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Jason Bateman — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Michael Shannon win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Michael Shannon — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Oscar Isaac win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Oscar Isaac — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Paul Anthony Kelly win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Paul Anthony Kelly — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.127Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/emmylimitedacto Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Richard%20Gadd%20win%20Movie%2FLimited%20Actor%20at%20the%20Emmy%20Awards Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev