17% — Will Claire Danes win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards Kalshi 17% · 5 contracts · $636 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-14 04:33:04 UTC Why this matters: This represents a 17% estimated chance that Claire Danes wins the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony. The market pricing reflects that while Danes is a respected veteran performer, she faces competitive pressure from other nominated actresses. Her probability would increase if she secures a high-profile Emmy-eligible role or if leading competitors receive less critical acclaim for their performances. The Emmy Awards ceremony itself, scheduled for September 2026, will provide the definitive resolution. Market participants are currently pricing Sarah Snook and Carey Mulligan as stronger contenders at 34¢ and 38¢ respectively, suggesting doubts about Danes' competitive position in this particular category relative to the field. Key factors: - Claire Danes is priced at 7¢ compared to Sarah Snook at 34¢ and Carey Mulligan at 38¢, indicating market participants view her as a significantly weaker contender than the two frontrunners - The Danes contract has the highest 24-hour trading volume at $27, suggesting more recent market activity and price discovery than other nominees - No Emmy-eligible roles for Danes have been publicly announced for the 2025-2026 eligibility window as of mid-2026, which differs from competitors with confirmed projects - Historical Emmy voting patterns show that critical acclaim, industry visibility, and campaign activity substantially influence outcomes in competitive supporting actress categories - The September 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony date provides the hard resolution point, with nomination announcements typically occurring several weeks prior Contracts: - Will Sarah Pidgeon win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Sarah Pidgeon — 16¢ Kalshi $377 (weight 59%) - Will Carey Mulligan win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Carey Mulligan — 33¢ Kalshi $147 (weight 23%) - Will Sarah Snook win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Sarah Snook — 29¢ Kalshi $113 (weight 18%) - Will Sally Field win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Sally Field — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tie win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Tie — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-14T04:20:49.515Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/emmylimitedactr Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Claire%20Danes%20win%20Movie%2FLimited%20Actress%20at%20the%20Emmy%20Awards Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev