22% — Will Nick Offerman win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards Kalshi 22% · 4 contracts · $100 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 06:02:22 UTC Why this matters: This market reflects a 17% probability that Nick Offerman wins the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Movie or Limited Series. Offerman's chances depend primarily on the strength of his competition and whether his recent work qualifies for Emmy eligibility in the relevant year. The prediction reflects relatively low odds compared to other contenders, suggesting either limited major film or limited series roles in the eligible period, or stronger performances from competing actors. The Emmy Awards ceremony, typically held in September, will definitively resolve this question. Between now and then, the release and reception of Offerman's eligible projects could shift probabilities upward if his performances gain critical recognition or industry momentum. Key factors: - Nick Offerman's eligible film and limited series projects for the Emmy year and their industry visibility - Strength and recognition of competing nominees in the Movie/Limited Supporting Actor category - Critical reception and awards circuit performance (precursor ceremonies like Golden Globes or SAG Awards) of Offerman's work - The specific Emmy eligibility period and which of Offerman's recent projects qualify for consideration - Historical voting patterns for this category and Offerman's previous Emmy nomination track record Contracts: - Will David Harbour win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: David Harbour — 22¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 100%) - Will Charles Melton win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Charles Melton — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Richard Gadd win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Richard Gadd — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tie win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Tie — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T05:20:48.681Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/emmylsacto Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Nick%20Offerman%20win%20Movie%2FLimited%20Supporting%20Actor%20at%20the%20Emmy%20Awards Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev