15% — Will Tie win Movie/Limited Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards
Kalshi 15% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:42 UTC

Why this matters:
A 15% probability indicates roughly a 1-in-6 chance that a tie will occur in the Movie/Limited Supporting Actress category at the Emmy Awards. Emmy ties in acting categories are relatively uncommon events, typically occurring when two performers receive identical vote tallies from the Academy's voting body. The current market price reflects uncertainty around voter behavior and the competitiveness of this year's field. The main factors driving this probability include the number and relative strength of nominated candidates—ties become more likely when several performers split votes evenly—and historical Emmy voting patterns in this specific category. Resolution will occur at the 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony when results are officially announced, which typically takes place in September. Until then, shifts in industry sentiment, critics' awards outcomes, and any emerging frontrunner consensus could adjust market expectations around the likelihood of a split decision.

Key factors:
- Emmy acting ties have occurred in recent years but remain statistical outliers, typically happening in 1-3% of award categories annually
- A tie outcome requires two performers to receive exactly equal votes from Academy members, which depends on both the field strength and voting distribution patterns
- Movie/Limited Supporting Actress category competitiveness and frontrunner emergence in coming months will likely influence tie probability estimates
- Historical voting concentration in this category—whether votes typically cluster around 1-2 clear frontrunners or distribute more evenly—directly impacts tie likelihood
- The September 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony date will provide the definitive resolution, with no intermediate data releases that would clarify voting trends beforehand

Contracts:
- Will Constance Zimmer win Movie/Limited Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Constance Zimmer — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Cailee Spaeny win Movie/Limited Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Cailee Spaeny — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Grace Gummer win Movie/Limited Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Grace Gummer — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Yuh-Jung Youn win Movie/Limited Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Yuh-Jung Youn — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Tie win Movie/Limited Supporting Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Tie — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.700Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/emmylsactr
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tie%20win%20Movie%2FLimited%20Supporting%20Actress%20at%20the%20Emmy%20Awards
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev