50% — Will Betty Gilpin be on the list of nominees for Movie/Limited Supporting Actress at the 78th Emmy Awards Kalshi 50% · 20 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 05:04:40 UTC Why this matters: This represents a roughly even-odds assessment of whether actress Betty Gilpin will receive a nomination for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Movie or Limited Series at the 78th Emmy Awards. The 51% probability reflects uncertainty about her competitiveness within a large field of eligible performers for these categories. Key drivers of this level include the quality and visibility of her 2024-2025 project submissions, the overall competitive landscape of supporting actress nominees in her category tier, and historical patterns of nomination recognition for her prior work. The probability will resolve when the Emmy Awards nominating committee announces its official ballot, which typically occurs in mid-July for the ceremony held in September. Until then, industry reception to her recent projects and relative strength compared to other contenders will shape market expectations. Key factors: - Betty Gilpin's nomination history and prior Emmy recognition levels in similar categories - The specific projects she appeared in during the 2024-2025 eligibility window and their industry visibility - The size and competitive depth of the Movie/Limited Supporting Actress field for this Emmy cycle - Volume and recency of industry awards recognition she received heading into nomination voting - Typical submission strategy and campaign intensity from her team or studio compared to peer actresses Contracts: - Will Margo's Got Money Troubles be on the list of nominees for Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Margo's Got Money Troubles — 77¢ Kalshi $910 (weight 15%) - Will The Bear be on the list of nominees for Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards?: The Bear — 64¢ Kalshi $627 (weight 11%) - Will Naomi Watts be on the list of nominees for Movie/Limited Supporting Actress at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Naomi Watts — 76¢ Kalshi $582 (weight 10%) - Will Jason Bateman be on the list of nominees for Movie/Limited Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Jason Bateman — 41¢ Kalshi $490 (weight 8%) - Will Rooster be on the list of nominees for Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Rooster — 33¢ Kalshi $417 (weight 7%) - Will Jamie Bell be on the list of nominees for Movie/Limited Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Jamie Bell — 67¢ Kalshi $319 (weight 5%) - Will Industry be on the list of nominees for Drama Series at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Industry — 29¢ Kalshi $317 (weight 5%) - Will Tyler James Williams be on the list of nominees for Comedy Supporting Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Tyler James Williams — 49¢ Kalshi $301 (weight 5%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-09T02:20:52.247Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/emmynoms Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Betty%20Gilpin%20be%20on%20the%20list%20of%20nominees%20for%20Movie%2FLimited%20Supporting%20Actress%20at%20the%2078th%20Emmy%20Awards Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev