51% — Will Betty Gilpin be on the list of nominees for Movie/Limited Supporting Actress at the 78th Emmy Awards Kalshi 51% · 19 contracts · $433 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 07:01:53 UTC Why this matters: This represents a roughly even-odds assessment of whether actress Betty Gilpin will receive a nomination for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Movie or Limited Series at the 78th Emmy Awards. The 51% probability reflects uncertainty about her competitiveness within a large field of eligible performers for these categories. Key drivers of this level include the quality and visibility of her 2024-2025 project submissions, the overall competitive landscape of supporting actress nominees in her category tier, and historical patterns of nomination recognition for her prior work. The probability will resolve when the Emmy Awards nominating committee announces its official ballot, which typically occurs in mid-July for the ceremony held in September. Until then, industry reception to her recent projects and relative strength compared to other contenders will shape market expectations. Key factors: - Betty Gilpin's nomination history and prior Emmy recognition levels in similar categories - The specific projects she appeared in during the 2024-2025 eligibility window and their industry visibility - The size and competitive depth of the Movie/Limited Supporting Actress field for this Emmy cycle - Volume and recency of industry awards recognition she received heading into nomination voting - Typical submission strategy and campaign intensity from her team or studio compared to peer actresses Contracts: - Will David Harbour be on the list of nominees for Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards?: David Harbour — 51¢ Kalshi $230 (weight 53%) - Will Kerry Washington be on the list of nominees for Movie/Limited Actress at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Kerry Washington — 41¢ Kalshi $166 (weight 38%) - Will Jake Lacy be on the list of nominees for Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Jake Lacy — 29¢ Kalshi $32 (weight 7%) - Will The Bear be on the list of nominees for Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards?: The Bear — 82¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 1%) - Will Isa Briones be on the list of nominees for Drama Supporting Actress at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Isa Briones — 37¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 1%) - Will Jack Lowden be on the list of nominees for Drama Supporting Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Jack Lowden — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jason Bateman be on the list of nominees for Movie/Limited Actor at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Jason Bateman — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Emilia Jones be on the list of nominees for Drama Supporting Actress at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Emilia Jones — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T06:20:07.120Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/emmynoms Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Betty%20Gilpin%20be%20on%20the%20list%20of%20nominees%20for%20Movie%2FLimited%20Supporting%20Actress%20at%20the%2078th%20Emmy%20Awards Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev