20% — Will Swiped win TV Movie at the Emmy Awards Kalshi 20% · 6 contracts · $31 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-20 18:12:00 UTC Why this matters: This represents the estimated chance that Swiped will win the Emmy Award for Outstanding Television Movie at the 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony. The 14% probability reflects a competitive field where Remarkably Bright Creatures is the current market favorite at 91%, suggesting Swiped is viewed as a solid contender but not among the top candidates. The probability would move based on critical reception, industry buzz, and voting patterns from Emmy voters who determine the winner. The Emmy Awards ceremony in September 2026 will be the final resolution point. Until then, factors like nomination confirmation, campaign visibility, and comparative quality assessments by industry voters will drive any probability shifts. The low trading volume on most contracts suggests limited market confidence in predicting the outcome with certainty. Key factors: - Remarkably Bright Creatures maintains 91 cents on the market, indicating it is the consensus favorite, leaving Swiped competing for remaining votes among other contenders - Swiped's 14% probability ranks fourth or fifth among the tracked television movie candidates, based on relative contract pricing - Emmy voting outcomes depend on Academy member preferences which can shift based on campaign efforts, screenings, and industry discussions between now and September 2026 - Trading volume across television movie contracts is relatively light, suggesting limited market participation and potentially higher uncertainty in price discovery - The final Emmy Awards ceremony is scheduled for September 2026, providing the resolution date for this market Contracts: - Will Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan: Ghost War win Outstanding Movie at the Emmy Awards?: Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan: Ghost War — 3¢ Kalshi $31 (weight 100%) - Will Remarkably Bright Creatures win Outstanding Movie at the Emmy Awards?: Remarkably Bright Creatures — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tie win Outstanding Movie at the Emmy Awards?: Tie — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Heads Of State win Outstanding Movie at the Emmy Awards?: Heads Of State — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Miss You, Love You win Outstanding Movie at the Emmy Awards?: Miss You, Love You — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will People We Meet On Vacation win Outstanding Movie at the Emmy Awards?: People We Meet On Vacation — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-02T01:20:51.987Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/emmytvmovie Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Swiped%20win%20TV%20Movie%20at%20the%20Emmy%20Awards Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev