90% — Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Connie Chan in CA-11 before Nov 3, 2026 Leader: Cori Bush at 90% · Kalshi 90% · 7 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 23:48:30 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract resolves yes if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez publicly endorses Connie Chan in California's 11th congressional district before Election Day 2026. At 46 cents on Kalshi, traders estimate roughly a 46% probability of this endorsement occurring. AOC has selectively endorsed progressive candidates in competitive races; whether she backs Chan depends on Chan's viability as a candidate, her policy alignment with AOC's platform, and AOC's bandwidth for endorsing candidates outside her own state. The primary catalyst would be Chan's performance in California's primary in June 2026, which would signal whether AOC views her as a viable general election candidate worth amplifying. Endorsement timing typically clusters in the final months before the general election. Key factors: - CA-11 primary results in June 2026 will determine if Chan advances to the general election as a frontrunner worthy of national progressive endorsement - AOC's historical endorsement patterns show selective support for progressive candidates in competitive races; her track record indicates which candidate profiles and district dynamics trigger her involvement - Connie Chan's campaign messaging, fundraising trajectory, and polling relative to opponents will indicate whether she appears viable enough to merit endorsement investment from a national political figure - Competing endorsement opportunities for AOC in other races (NY-07, Michigan Senate, Maine Senate) may affect her bandwidth and whether CA-11 becomes a priority - The timing window closes November 3, 2026; endorsements typically occur 2-3 months before Election Day, making September-October 2026 the most likely period for any resolution Contracts: - Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Cori Bush in MO-01 before Nov 3, 2026?: Cori Bush — 90¢ Kalshi $410 (weight 19%) - Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Claire Valdez in NY-07 before Nov 3, 2026?: Claire Valdez — 89¢ Kalshi $303 (weight 14%) - Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan Senate before Nov 3, 2026?: Abdul El-Sayed — 86¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 5%) - Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Darializa Avila Chevalier in NY-13 before Nov 3, 2026?: Darializa Avila Chevalier — 81¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 47%) - Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Connie Chan in CA-11 before Nov 3, 2026?: Connie Chan — 27¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%) - Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026?: Graham Platner — 26¢ Kalshi $303 (weight 14%) - Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Nida Allam in NC-04 before Nov 3, 2026?: Nida Allam — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:50.327Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/endorseaoc Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Alexandria%20Ocasio-Cortez%20endorse%20Connie%20Chan%20in%20CA-11%20before%20Nov%203%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev