8% — Will Angus King endorse Susan Collins in the 2026 Maine Senate election before Nov 3, 2026 Kalshi 8% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-14 04:29:21 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the chance that Maine's independent U.S. Senator Angus King will publicly endorse incumbent Republican Susan Collins before the November 3, 2026 general election. King and Collins have maintained a cross-party working relationship and both represent Maine as moderates, which could favor an endorsement. However, King's party affiliation and general independence from the Republican Party create friction against a formal endorsement. The current 27% probability suggests markets see it as unlikely but plausible. Key drivers include whether Collins faces a competitive Democratic challenger who King might prefer to defeat, and the overall political environment in Maine closer to Election Day. Any endorsement would likely come in the final weeks of the campaign if it occurs at all. Key factors: - Angus King has historically endorsed Democrats in presidential races and maintained independent status; formal endorsement of a Republican would mark a shift requiring either strategic reasoning or relationship-based motivation - The competitiveness and identity of Collins's Democratic challenger remains crucial—King may be more inclined to endorse if facing a candidate significantly left of his own political center - King's September-October 2026 public statements, media appearances, and campaign activities in Maine will provide signals about his electoral calculus and Collins's vulnerabilities - Endorsements typically cluster in the final 4-6 weeks before elections; King's silence or active campaigning for other candidates would reduce endorsement probability - Recent polarization trends in Maine politics and King's demonstrated willingness to work across party lines on specific issues versus broader campaign endorsements represent competing historical patterns Contracts: - Will Angus King endorse Susan Collins in the 2026 Maine Senate election before Nov 3, 2026?: Angus King — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will Greg Elder endorse Susan Collins in the 2026 Maine Senate election before Nov 3, 2026?: Greg Elder — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will Jake Auchincloss endorse Susan Collins in the 2026 Maine Senate election before Nov 3, 2026?: Jake Auchincloss — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will John Fetterman endorse Susan Collins in the 2026 Maine Senate election before Nov 3, 2026?: John Fetterman — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will Jared Golden endorse Susan Collins in the 2026 Maine Senate election before Nov 3, 2026?: Jared Golden — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will Olympia Snowe endorse Susan Collins in the 2026 Maine Senate election before Nov 3, 2026?: Olympia Snowe — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-14T04:20:48.795Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/endorsecollins Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Angus%20King%20endorse%20Susan%20Collins%20in%20the%202026%20Maine%20Senate%20election%20before%20Nov%203%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev