9% — Will Donald Trump endorse James Fishback in Florida's gubernatorial election (primary or general) before Aug 18, 2026
Kalshi 9% · 1 contracts · $56 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:45 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability measures whether Donald Trump will publicly endorse James Fishback for Florida governor in either the primary or general election before August 18, 2026. The 26% probability reflects Trump's established pattern of selective endorsements in 2026 races, tempered by uncertainty about Fishback's profile within Trump's coalition and the timeline remaining. Upward pressure would come from Fishback gaining traction in polling or fundraising, while lower probabilities would reflect Trump endorsing a competing candidate or declining to engage in the Florida governor's race. The key catalyst is the Florida Republican primary election, typically scheduled for August 2026, which would resolve most uncertainty about Trump's endorsement priorities in this race.

Key factors:
- Trump has endorsed multiple 2026 Senate candidates (Collins in Georgia, Barr in Kentucky) at relatively high probabilities (62¢, 51¢), suggesting he is actively making endorsements in 2026 races
- James Fishback's relative prominence and alignment with Trump's stated priorities is unclear compared to other 2026 Florida candidates Trump might target
- Florida's gubernatorial primary occurs in August 2026, creating a hard deadline for Trump's endorsement decision in this specific race
- Trump's historical pattern shows selective rather than universal endorsements, particularly in executive races where he may defer to sitting governors or national priorities
- The 19-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (27%) and Polymarket (8%) suggests significant disagreement among traders about Fishback's likelihood of receiving Trump's support

Contracts:
- Will Candace Owens endorse James Fishback in Florida's gubernatorial election (primary or general) before Aug 18, 2026?: Candace Owens — 9¢ Kalshi $56 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.490Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/endorsefishback
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump%20endorse%20James%20Fishback%20in%20Florida's%20gubernatorial%20election%20(primary%20or%20general)%20before%20Aug%2018%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev