9% — Will JD Vance endorse Spencer Pratt in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election before Jun 2, 2026 Kalshi 9% · 6 contracts · $1 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-29 23:40:08 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Vice President JD Vance will publicly endorse Spencer Pratt in Los Angeles's 2026 mayoral race before June 2, 2026. At 25%, the market suggests endorsement is possible but not the most probable outcome. The probability is driven by two main considerations: first, Vance's past tendency to engage with celebrity politics and non-traditional candidates, which could make such an endorsement conceivable; second, the short timeframe (roughly 3 weeks from today) and lack of any recent signals suggesting Vance is focusing on California local races, which reduces the likelihood of this specific event occurring. The resolution date of June 2 represents the election itself, making any endorsement in this period final and definitive. The current 25% level reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Vance would choose to weigh in on this particular race during such a compressed window. Key factors: - JD Vance has made no public statements about Spencer Pratt's mayoral candidacy as of mid-May 2026 - The endorsement window closes June 2, 2026 (approximately 21 days), limiting the time for Vance to engage - Similar endorsement probabilities for Tucker Carlson (21¢) and Donald Trump Jr. (19¢) suggest low baseline expectation for any conservative political figure backing Pratt - Spencer Pratt's campaign visibility and any direct solicitation of Vance's support would be required to materially shift this probability upward - Marjorie Taylor Greene's contract (48¢) trades significantly higher, suggesting differential assessment of her likelihood to participate in local LA politics Contracts: - Will JD Vance endorse Spencer Pratt in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election before Jun 2, 2026?: JD Vance — 7¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 100%) - Will Donald Trump Jr. endorse Spencer Pratt in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election before Jun 2, 2026?: Donald Trump Jr. — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Marjorie Taylor Greene endorse Spencer Pratt in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election before Jun 2, 2026?: Marjorie Taylor Greene — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorse Spencer Pratt in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election before Jun 2, 2026?: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Steve Bannon endorse Spencer Pratt in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election before Jun 2, 2026?: Steve Bannon — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tucker Carlson endorse Spencer Pratt in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election before Jun 2, 2026?: Tucker Carlson — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:08.481Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/endorsepratt Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20JD%20Vance%20endorse%20Spencer%20Pratt%20in%20the%202026%20Los%20Angeles%20mayoral%20election%20before%20Jun%202%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev