35% — England vs. Croatia
Polymarket 33% · 3 contracts · $60 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 16:45:40 UTC

Why this matters:
This 39% probability reflects current market expectations that England will win an upcoming match against Croatia. The probability sits below the 50% threshold, suggesting markets currently favor Croatia or view the match as competitive. England's win probability is influenced by team form, head-to-head history, player availability, and tactical matchups. The primary uncertainty will be resolved when the match is played; current betting activity shows moderate liquidity on England as favorite (54¢ on Kalshi), though some markets price Croatia's chances higher. The cross-venue gap of 3 percentage points between Kalshi and Polymarket indicates venues have slightly different crowd assessments of the matchup.

Key factors:
- England win contract trades at 54¢ on Kalshi versus lower prices on competing markets, indicating price divergence that traders may be evaluating
- Recent 24-hour volume of $265 on the England winner contract suggests active but not extreme market participation
- Polymarket's Croatia contract trades at 21¢, implying different implied win probability than the aggregated 39% England probability across venues
- Multiple draw contracts across related matches (Panama vs. England, Croatia vs. Ghana) trade at 25¢, suggesting uncertainty around broader tournament structure or match conditions
- The 3 percentage point gap between venues indicates material disagreement on match probability that hasn't been arbitraged away

Contracts:
- England vs. Croatia: Croatia — 20¢ Polymarket $40 (weight 50%)
- England vs. Croatia: England — 56¢ Polymarket $20 (weight 41%)
- England vs. Croatia: Draw (England vs. Croatia) — 24¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 9%)

Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/england-vs-croatia
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=England%20vs.%20Croatia
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev