13% — Will the President sign between 300 and 349 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029
Leader: Between 350 and 399 at 13% · Kalshi 13% · 11 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 00:20:18 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market asks whether President Trump will sign between 300 and 349 executive orders during his four-year term from January 2025 through January 2029. The 13% probability reflects skepticism that the final count will land precisely in this range. Trump signed 220 executive orders in his first term (2017-2021), averaging 55 per year. Reaching 300-349 would require approximately 75-87 per year, a notably higher pace. The low probability suggests traders see the actual total likely falling either below 300 or substantially above 349. As the term progresses and quarterly signing patterns emerge, markets will adjust based on whether Trump maintains an elevated executive action cadence or returns to historical norms. The resolution date is January 20, 2029, when the official count becomes definitive.

Key factors:
- Trump's first-term average of 220 orders over four years (55/year) would need to increase roughly 35-60% to reach the 300-349 range
- Executive order frequency typically correlates with policy priorities and congressional opposition; unified Republican control in early 2025 may affect signing patterns
- Historical precedent: Biden signed 140 orders in his first term (35/year), Obama averaged 43/year, suggesting 75-87/year would be exceptionally high
- The narrow band (300-349) makes this outcome less likely than broader ranges; most final totals will fall outside this specific window
- Quarterly trend data becomes available throughout 2026-2028, allowing markets to recalibrate probability as actual signing pace becomes observable

Contracts:
- Will the President sign between 350 and 399 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Between 350 and 399 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Will the President sign between 400 and 449 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Between 400 and 449 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Will the President sign between 450 and 499 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Between 450 and 499 — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Will the President sign between 500 and 549 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Between 500 and 549 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Will the President sign fewer than 300 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Below 300 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Will the President sign between 550 and 599 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Between 550 and 599 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Will the President sign between 300 and 349 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Between 300 and 349 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Will the President sign between 600 and 649 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?: Between 600 and 649 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-28T23:20:50.423Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/eotrumpterm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20President%20sign%20between%20300%20and%20349%20Executive%20Orders%20between%20Jan%2020%2C%202025%20and%20Jan%2020%2C%202029
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev