51% — Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between May 3, 2026 and May 9, 2026
Kalshi 51% · 1 contracts · $3K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:46:24 UTC

Why this matters:
This market asks whether the U.S. President will sign at least one executive order during the week of June 21–27, 2026. The 83% probability reflects high confidence that at least one order will be issued, though markets for higher thresholds (2+ orders) drop sharply to 25%, suggesting uncertainty about volume. Presidential executive order activity typically correlates with legislative cycles, scheduled policy announcements, and responses to judicial or economic developments. The probability sits well above 50% because presidents sign executive orders frequently—averaging multiple per week historically—making zero orders during a full week an outlier scenario. Resolution depends on official White House announcements and Federal Register publication of any signed orders during the specified week. Near-term catalysts include scheduled legislation debates, regulatory deadlines, and any emergency declarations or policy shifts that might trigger executive action.

Key factors:
- Historical baseline: U.S. presidents have signed multiple executive orders per week on average, making zero orders in any given week statistically uncommon
- Contract structure shows declining confidence at higher thresholds (83% for >0, 57% for >1, 25% for >2), indicating market uncertainty about order frequency rather than likelihood of any action
- Volume concentrated in the >0 and >1 contracts ($558 and $952 in 24h volume), suggesting active disagreement about whether typical weekly activity will occur
- No scheduled legislative crises, recess periods, or known policy pauses mentioned for the June 21–27 window that would suppress routine executive activity
- Resolution depends entirely on White House publication and Federal Register official record during the specified calendar week

Contracts:
- Will the President sign more than 2 Executive Orders between Jun 21, 2026 and Jun 27, 2026?: Above 2 — 51¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T00:20:51.334Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/eoweek
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20President%20sign%20more%20than%200%20Executive%20Orders%20between%20May%203%2C%202026%20and%20May%209%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev