24% — EPL: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor)
Polymarket 27% · 6 contracts · $260 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 15:27:47 UTC

Why this matters:
This 29% probability represents the collective assessment that Newcastle United finishes 17th in the English Premier League, which would trigger automatic relegation to the Championship. The market is pricing in Newcastle's mid-table positioning relative to the safety threshold, with key uncertainty around their injury situation, managerial decisions, and fixture difficulty through the end of the season. The relegation picture typically clarifies substantially in the final 10 matches (late April through May), when form inconsistencies become statistically significant and teams face their critical run-in. Leicester's promotion-chase performance and which mid-table clubs stumble most heavily down the stretch will directly influence whether Newcastle's current gap holds or tightens.

Key factors:
- Newcastle's current league position, recent 5-10 match form, and point differential relative to the 18th-place team
- Upcoming fixture difficulty and head-to-head matchups between Newcastle and other teams in direct relegation competition
- Injury status of key squad players and managerial changes or tactical shifts affecting performance consistency
- Historical volatility in final-season standings—whether Newcastle has pulled clear of the relegation zone or maintains a narrow buffer
- Comparative form trends of direct competitors fighting for the same 17th-place finish versus automatic relegation

Contracts:
- EPL: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Newcastle United — 5¢ Polymarket $229 (weight 47%)
- EPL: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Tottenham Hotspur — 52¢ Polymarket $31 (weight 30%)
- EPL: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Nottingham Forest — 36¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 6%)
- EPL: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Crystal Palace — 11¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 6%)
- EPL: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): West Ham United — 50¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 6%)
- EPL: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Leeds United — 10¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 6%)

Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/epl-17th-place-relegation-survivor
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=EPL%3A%2017th%20Place%20(Relegation%20Survivor)
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev