35% — EPL – Which Clubs Get Relegated
Leader: West Ham at 35% · Polymarket 35% · 4 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:22:45 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 31% probability reflects the market's assessment of the likelihood that at least one of three specific EPL clubs will be relegated at the end of the 2025-26 season. West Ham (35¢) and Tottenham (32¢) are priced highest among the tracked contracts, suggesting these clubs face the most perceived relegation risk. The probability is primarily driven by current league positions, points differentials from safety, and remaining fixture difficulty. As the season progresses through May and beyond, team performances in upcoming matches will directly influence these odds—wins improve survival chances while losses increase relegation risk. The resolution of this market will occur in late May 2026 when the final Premier League standings are determined and the three lowest-placed clubs are officially relegated.

Key factors:
- West Ham and Tottenham are individually priced between 32-35¢, indicating specific market concern about their survival prospects relative to other clubs
- Nottingham Forest trades at only 13¢ despite being tracked, suggesting the market assigns it substantially lower relegation risk than the top two contracts
- Current contract volume and pricing reflect betting activity through early May 2026, meaning this represents recent market sentiment rather than season-long consensus
- The aggregated 31% probability represents odds for at least one named club being relegated, not a probability distributed equally across all three
- Future repricing will depend on these clubs' actual match results, injury developments, and managerial decisions over the remaining fixtures before league conclusion

Contracts:
- EPL – Which Clubs Get Relegated?: West Ham — 35¢ Polymarket $642 (weight 11%)
- EPL – Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Tottenham — 32¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 32%)
- EPL – Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Leeds — 19¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 26%)
- EPL – Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Nottm Forest — 13¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 31%)

Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/epl-which-clubs-get-relegated
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=EPL%20%E2%80%93%20Which%20Clubs%20Get%20Relegated
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev