49% — Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026 Leader: Donald Trump at 49% · Kalshi 49% · 17 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-22 00:23:58 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 17 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that Woody Allen will be named in Epstein-related documents released during 2026, currently priced at 63%. The main drivers are the scope and timing of judicial releases mandated by settled litigation, combined with uncertainty about how extensively the documents will implicate specific public figures. Market pricing suggests moderate confidence in Allen's naming, with notable divergence from other high-profile names—Joe Biden at 44%, Prince Andrew at 56%, and Kevin Spacey at 16%. The primary catalyst is the actual release schedule of sealed documents, which has faced multiple delays. Trading volumes suggest selective interest, with Biden-related contracts showing highest liquidity despite lower probability. Resolution depends entirely on whether released materials specifically identify Allen by name or reference in connection with Epstein. Key factors: - Document release scope and timing remain uncertain—prior judicial schedules have slipped, creating ambiguity about what gets released and when in 2026 - Market assigns Allen higher probability (63%) than Biden (44%) despite Biden's higher public profile, suggesting contract traders see specific documentary evidence relevant to Allen - Prince Andrew at 56% and Biden at 44% create an inverted hierarchy from political prominence, indicating market confidence in particular documentary content rather than pure name recognition - Trading volume concentration in Biden and Biden-related contracts ($757 24h) versus minimal volume on secondary names ($18-$72) suggests retail vs. informed trader positioning - Resolution requires explicit naming—indirect references, alleged connections, or appearance in flight logs would require clear identification to satisfy contract terms Contracts: - Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Donald Trump — 49¢ Kalshi $77 (weight 4%) - Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Prince Andrew — 41¢ Kalshi $111 (weight 6%) - Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Naomi Campbell — 33¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Bill Clinton — 31¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 1%) - Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Bill Gates — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Kevin Spacey — 30¢ Kalshi $350 (weight 20%) - Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Woody Allen — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Joe Biden — 29¢ Kalshi $875 (weight 51%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T23:20:54.722Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/epsteinlist Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20named%20in%20Epstein%20documents%20released%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev