59% — Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026 Leader: Bill Clinton at 59% · Kalshi 59% · 18 contracts · $446 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:31 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability estimates the likelihood that at least one individual will be named in the Epstein-related documents that the U.S. government has committed to releasing during 2026. The question hinges on both the scope and timing of document releases, as well as how broadly 'named' is interpreted. Currently, markets are split on this outcome, with Kalshi traders pricing it 14 percentage points higher than Polymarket participants, suggesting disagreement about release schedules and content. The main resolution driver will be the actual documents released through 2026, which are subject to court deadlines and potential extensions. Markets are closely tracking whether any material documents emerge before year-end and whether they contain identifiable allegations or associations beyond previously public information. Key factors: - Timing of court-ordered releases: Documents are subject to ongoing litigation with specific judicial deadlines that may be accelerated, delayed, or extended - Definition of 'named': Whether the resolution criteria include any mention, direct allegation, business transaction, or only substantive criminal associations will significantly affect outcomes - Content threshold: Markets diverge on whether documents must name individuals not previously identified in released materials or whether any naming satisfies the criteria - Volume and redaction rates: Government redactions for national security or witness protection could substantially reduce the number of identifiable names in released documents - Cross-venue probability gap of 14 percentage points suggests material uncertainty about either release likelihood or interpretation of resolution rules Contracts: - Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Bill Clinton — 59¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 4%) - Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Prince Andrew — 58¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 2%) - Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Hillary Clinton — 58¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Donald Trump — 56¢ Kalshi $220 (weight 49%) - Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Woody Allen — 49¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 2%) - Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Leonardo DiCaprio — 47¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Joe Biden — 43¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 1%) - Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Kevin Spacey — 42¢ Kalshi $45 (weight 10%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:49.691Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "59% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/epsteinlist Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20named%20in%20Epstein%20documents%20released%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev