92% — Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.9%
Leader: Above 0.3% at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 5 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 12:05:28 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Spain's first-quarter 2026 quarter-over-quarter GDP growth will exceed 0.9%. The current 60% probability for the lower threshold (above 0.2%) suggests markets expect positive growth, but the sharp drop to 10% for the 0.6% threshold indicates significant uncertainty about whether growth will reach more robust levels. Spain's GDP growth depends on domestic consumption, eurozone demand, and monetary conditions. The consensus appears skeptical of very strong growth, positioning expectations in a modest positive range. The official Spanish GDP flash estimate release in late April or early May will definitively settle the outcome, providing actual quarterly growth data. Until then, forward-looking economic indicators and preliminary survey data remain the primary drivers of probability shifts.

Key factors:
- Spain's Q1 2026 preliminary GDP data has not yet been released; the flash estimate typically comes 30-45 days after quarter-end
- Market pricing suggests consensus expectations for growth between 0.2% and 0.6% quarterly, below the 0.9% threshold in the question headline
- Eurozone economic conditions, ECB policy stance, and Spanish labor market performance through March 2026 will mechanically determine actual growth
- The 10-fold probability gap between the 0.2% and 0.6% thresholds reveals acute disagreement about mid-range growth outcomes
- Trading volume has been zero in 24 hours, indicating low recent market interest and potentially stale pricing pending data release

Contracts:
- Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.3%?: Above 0.3% — 92¢ Kalshi $99 (weight 8%)
- Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2% — 92¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%)
- Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4% — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.5%?: Above 0.5% — 82¢ Kalshi $276 (weight 22%)
- Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6% — 11¢ Kalshi $851 (weight 69%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.380Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/esgdpqoqf
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Spain%20GDP%20growth%20rate%20QoQ%20flash%20for%20Q1%202026%20be%20above%200.9%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev