97% — Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 3.6%
Leader: Above 2.2% at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:32:04 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Spain's year-over-year GDP growth will exceed 3.6% when first reported for the first quarter of 2026. The relatively high 90% probability suggests confidence that Spain's economy will achieve above-trend growth. The main drivers are Spain's recent economic performance trajectory and labor market strength, which have supported consumer spending and business investment. A key downside factor would be any deterioration in eurozone demand or unexpected inflation that constrains monetary policy. The resolution depends on Spain's official GDP flash estimate for Q1 2026, typically released in late April or early May. The probability structure shows traders increasingly confident about higher growth thresholds, with 96% probability assigned to growth exceeding 2.6%, suggesting the market expects solid but not exceptional performance.

Key factors:
- Spain's labor market has shown resilience with declining unemployment, supporting household consumption patterns that typically drive quarterly growth
- The probability monotonically decreases at higher thresholds (96% at 2.6%, down to 90% at 3.6%), indicating diminishing confidence about exceeding the 3.6% target
- Q1 2026 data will be official government statistics subject to revision, meaning the flash estimate carries inherent measurement uncertainty
- Eurozone-wide economic conditions and interest rate policy will influence whether Spain achieves above-3.6% growth given its export dependence
- The 3.6% threshold represents roughly 1.5x the recent European average growth rate, making it a notably ambitious target for the region

Contracts:
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.2%?: Above 2.2% — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.0%?: Above 2.0% — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4% — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.6%?: Above 2.6% — 71¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.8%?: Above 2.8% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:08.347Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/esgdpyoyf
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Spain%20GDP%20growth%20rate%20YoY%20flash%20for%20Q1%202026%20be%20above%203.6%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev