45% — Will Alex Palou win Best Driver award at the 2026 ESPYS Kalshi 45% · 14 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-12 22:04:20 UTC Why this matters: This 22% probability indicates that roughly one in five forecast outcomes favor Alex Palou receiving the Best Driver award at the 2026 ESPYS ceremony. The relatively low odds reflect the competitive field of professional drivers across multiple racing series who could be considered for the honor. Key drivers of this probability include Palou's performance throughout the 2026 racing season, his visibility and media profile compared to other elite drivers, and historical voting patterns at the ESPYS, which often favor mainstream sports and athletes with significant achievements or narratives during the award year. The main resolution catalyst will be the ESPYS ceremony itself, typically held in July, where voting results determine the winner. Between now and that event, Palou's race results, championship standings, and any major victories or incidents will likely adjust market expectations upward or downward as new information emerges about his competitive standing relative to peers. Key factors: - Palou's position in the 2026 IndyCar championship standings and major race victories before the ESPYS voting period closes - Comparison of Palou's public profile and media mentions to competing drivers from NASCAR, Formula 1, and other racing series eligible for the award - Historical ESPYS voting patterns showing which racing drivers or driving categories have won Best Driver awards in previous years - Volume and recent momentum of prediction market contracts for this specific award, which is low ($518 24h volume) compared to mainstream sports awards - The date of the ESPYS ceremony and the cutoff for voting eligibility, which determines which 2026 racing events count toward this award Contracts: - Will New York Knicks win Best Team award at the 2026 ESPYS?: New York Knicks — 92¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 35%) - Will Jalen Brunson win Best NBA Player award at the 2026 ESPYS?: Jalen Brunson — 89¢ Kalshi $931 (weight 12%) - Will Drake Maye win Best Breakthrough Athlete award at the 2026 ESPYS?: Drake Maye — 4¢ Kalshi $766 (weight 10%) - Will Jalen Brunson win Best Championship Performance award at the 2026 ESPYS?: Jalen Brunson — 80¢ Kalshi $492 (weight 7%) - Will Shohei Ohtani win Best Athlete, Men's Sports award at the 2026 ESPYS?: Shohei Ohtani — 9¢ Kalshi $412 (weight 5%) - Will Jalen Brunson win Best Athlete, Men's Sports award at the 2026 ESPYS?: Jalen Brunson — 59¢ Kalshi $387 (weight 5%) - Will Terence Crawford win Best Fighter award at the 2026 ESPYS?: Terence Crawford — 26¢ Kalshi $360 (weight 5%) - Will A’ja Wilson win Best Athlete, Women’s Sports award at the 2026 ESPYS?: A’ja Wilson — 66¢ Kalshi $334 (weight 4%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-12T21:20:51.778Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/espys Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Alex%20Palou%20win%20Best%20Driver%20award%20at%20the%202026%20ESPYS Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev