23% — Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT Leader: $1,650 to 1,689.99 at 23% · Kalshi 23% · 7 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-17 02:00:12 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This represents a 67% market probability that Ethereum will trade between $2,000 and $2,039.99 on May 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT. The leading probability reflects trader expectations that Ethereum will remain within a relatively tight mid-range band. The current level is primarily driven by recent price stability and open interest concentrated in the $1,960–$2,040 range across multiple contract dates. Key factors pushing this probability include macro conditions affecting crypto valuations and near-term technical support levels. The main uncertainty resolver will be actual Ethereum spot price on the specified date; traders are also monitoring adjacent price bins ($1,960–$1,999.99 and $2,040–$2,079.99), which together account for 24% probability, indicating meaningful disagreement on whether Ethereum will break above or below the leading range. Key factors: - Highest trading volume ($689 24h) concentrated in the $1,960–$1,999.99 bin, suggesting floor support but lower conviction than the leader - The $2,000–$2,039.99 contract trades at 66¢ on Kalshi versus adjacent ranges at 18¢ and 6¢, indicating strong consensus for this specific band - Multiple contracts reference June 5, 2026 at lower probabilities, showing traders expect either resolution by May 30 or potential price drift outside current ranges over six days - The 11-contract structure creates winner-take-all dynamics; any price outcome outside $1,880–$2,079.99 would shift probability sharply to an unrepresented bin - Total Kalshi volume across top five contracts is $1,684 over 24 hours, reflecting active but not exceptionally deep liquidity for this specific event Contracts: - Ethereum price at Jun 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: $1,650 to 1,689.99 — 23¢ Kalshi $301 (weight 10%) - Ethereum price at Jun 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: $1,610 to 1,649.99 — 18¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 48%) - Ethereum price at Jun 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: $1,690 to 1,729.99 — 14¢ Kalshi $222 (weight 7%) - Ethereum price at Jun 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: $1,730 to 1,769.99 — 4¢ Kalshi $410 (weight 13%) - Ethereum price at Jun 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: $1,570 to 1,609.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $334 (weight 11%) - Ethereum price at Jun 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: $1,530 to 1,569.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $329 (weight 11%) - Ethereum price at Jun 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: $1,450 to 1,489.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-12T01:20:51.409Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/eth Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Ethereum%20price%20at%20Apr%2024%2C%202026%20at%205pm%20EDT Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev