94% — Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT
Leader: $1,370 or above at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 16 contracts · $25K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:00:17 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 16 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Ethereum price at Jun 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: $1,370 or above — 94¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 0%)
- Ethereum price at Jun 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: $1,410 or above — 93¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 19%)
- Ethereum price at Jun 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: $1,450 or above — 90¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 8%)
- Ethereum price at Jun 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: $1,490 or above — 90¢ Kalshi $400 (weight 2%)
- Ethereum price at Jun 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: $1,530 or above — 84¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 10%)
- Ethereum price at Jun 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: $1,570 or above — 77¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 7%)
- Ethereum price at Jun 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: $1,610 or above — 70¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 12%)
- Ethereum price at Jun 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?: $1,650 or above — 59¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 9%)
- ... and 8 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T03:20:08.669Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ethd
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Ethereum%20price%20at%20Apr%2024%2C%202026%20at%205pm%20EDT
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev