6% — Ethereum all time high by ___
Leader: December 31, 2026 at 6% · Polymarket 6% · 2 contracts · $666 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 15:56:11 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This reflects the probability that Ethereum reaches a new all-time high by year-end 2026. The 13% probability suggests market participants view a substantial price advance as unlikely within the next seven months. The main factors shaping this view are Ethereum's current price level relative to its previous peak (set in November 2021 near $4,900), the broader cryptocurrency market momentum, and macroeconomic conditions affecting risk assets. Ethereum's performance typically correlates with Bitcoin's moves, though it has historically lagged during bull markets. The key uncertainty resolves on December 31, 2026, though interim price movements and regulatory developments could shift expectations throughout the year. Lower trading volume on Ethereum contracts compared to Bitcoin equivalents suggests fewer participants are positioned in these markets.

Key factors:
- Ethereum's current price compared to its November 2021 all-time high of approximately $4,891
- Bitcoin's momentum and ability to reach new highs, given Ethereum's historical correlation with Bitcoin during market cycles
- Regulatory developments affecting cryptocurrency markets, particularly regarding staking, smart contracts, and institutional adoption
- Total cryptocurrency market capitalization trends and macroeconomic conditions affecting broader risk-asset demand
- Sustained institutional inflows and on-chain activity metrics indicating genuine demand versus speculative price action

Contracts:
- Ethereum all time high by ___?: December 31, 2026 — 6¢ Polymarket $550 (weight 83%)
- Ethereum all time high by ___?: September 30, 2026 — 3¢ Polymarket $116 (weight 17%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ethereum-all-time-high
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Ethereum%20all%20time%20high%20by%20___
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev