13% — Will Ethereum reach above $3750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM Leader: Above $3,500.00 at 13% · Kalshi 13% · 8 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-07 00:51:06 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This market is pricing a 12% chance that Ethereum will trade above $3,750 by January 1, 2027—roughly five and a half months away. The current price is implied to be substantially lower, and reaching this threshold would require meaningful appreciation. The probability reflects skepticism about such gains materializing in this timeframe. Traders are assigning higher likelihoods to lower price targets ($3,500 at 12%, $3,750 at 10%), while upper ranges ($4,000+) carry single-digit odds. This distribution suggests most market participants expect modest appreciation at best or price depreciation over the period. Key drivers include broader cryptocurrency market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions affecting risk assets, Bitcoin correlation, regulatory developments affecting Ethereum's utility or adoption, and any major technical or protocol developments. The resolution date in approximately five months provides a defined endpoint, making this a near-term bet on Ethereum's price trajectory rather than long-term valuation. Key factors: - Current Ethereum price relative to $3,750 target determines how much appreciation is priced in; lower starting prices make the threshold easier to reach - Historical volatility in crypto markets suggests single-quarter moves of 20-30% are plausible but not typical, affecting probability calibration - Bitcoin price movement and overall cryptocurrency market cycles are primary drivers—Ethereum's moves typically correlate 0.6-0.8 with BTC - Regulatory announcements or major protocol upgrades (Shanghai-scale events) could shift market expectations significantly - The liquidity concentration at lower price tiers ($3,500) versus this tier ($3,750) indicates diminishing conviction among traders at each price increment Contracts: - Will Ethereum reach above $3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $3,500.00 — 13¢ Kalshi $821 (weight 37%) - Will Ethereum reach above $3750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $3,750.00 — 9¢ Kalshi $149 (weight 7%) - Will Ethereum reach above $4250.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $4,250.00 — 7¢ Kalshi $328 (weight 15%) - Will Ethereum reach above $4500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $4,500.00 — 7¢ Kalshi $114 (weight 5%) - Will Ethereum reach above $4000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $4,000.00 — 6¢ Kalshi $111 (weight 5%) - Will Ethereum reach above $5000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $5,000.00 — 4¢ Kalshi $463 (weight 21%) - Will Ethereum reach above $4750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $4,750.00 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ethereum reach above $6000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $6,000.00 — 3¢ Kalshi $230 (weight 10%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-07T00:20:50.770Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ethmaxy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ethereum%20reach%20above%20%243750.00%20by%20Jan%201%2C%202027%20at%2012%3A00AM Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev