14% — Will Ethereum reach above $3750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM Leader: Above $3,500.00 at 14% · Kalshi 14% · 8 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-19 11:08:29 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability estimates a 30% chance that Ethereum will trade above $3,750 by the end of 2026. The assessment reflects moderate skepticism about such a significant price move within roughly 8 months from now. Current market conditions and historical volatility patterns appear to be constraining the upside probability, while related contracts suggest traders see the $3,500 level as slightly more achievable at 36%. The resolution depends heavily on macroeconomic factors including interest rate policy, cryptocurrency adoption trends, and overall risk appetite in digital asset markets. Major regulatory developments or technological announcements could meaningfully shift probabilities in either direction. The outcome will be mechanically determined by whether Ethereum's highest price reaches the $3,750 threshold at any point through January 1, 2027, regardless of where it settles. Key factors: - Ethereum must appreciate approximately 27% from recent price levels to reach $3,750, requiring sustained bullish momentum over 8 months - Related contract pricing ($3,500 target at 36%, $1,250 downside at 35%) suggests markets perceive meaningful downside risk alongside upside potential - Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and broader macroeconomic policy through late 2026 will significantly influence risk asset valuations and capital flows into crypto - Ethereum network developments, institutional adoption metrics, and regulatory clarity in major jurisdictions could act as catalysts to adjust probability materially - Historical volatility in cryptocurrency markets means substantial price swings are possible, but the 30% probability reflects skepticism about achieving this specific $750+ move upward Contracts: - Will Ethereum reach above $3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $3,500.00 — 14¢ Kalshi $148 (weight 12%) - Will Ethereum reach above $3750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $3,750.00 — 13¢ Kalshi $122 (weight 10%) - Will Ethereum reach above $4000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $4,000.00 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ethereum reach above $4250.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $4,250.00 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ethereum reach above $5000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $5,000.00 — 7¢ Kalshi $111 (weight 9%) - Will Ethereum reach above $4500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $4,500.00 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ethereum reach above $4750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $4,750.00 — 4¢ Kalshi $852 (weight 69%) - Will Ethereum reach above $6000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $6,000.00 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-19T10:20:19.776Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ethmaxy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ethereum%20reach%20above%20%243750.00%20by%20Jan%201%2C%202027%20at%2012%3A00AM Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev