81% — Will Ethereum reach below $750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET
Leader: Below $1,500.00 at 81% · Kalshi 81% · 4 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 12:17:30 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 29% chance that Ethereum's price will fall below $750 by year-end 2026, about eight months from now. The probability reflects traders' assessment that such a severe decline—roughly 60% down from current levels—is unlikely but possible. Major factors influencing this view include macroeconomic conditions affecting risk assets, regulatory developments around cryptocurrency, and Ethereum's technical fundamentals. The broader crypto market direction, particularly Bitcoin's performance, typically correlates with Ethereum movements. Key catalysts that could shift this probability include major regulatory announcements, significant network disruptions, substantial shifts in institutional adoption, or broad equity market stress that triggers a flight from risk assets. The low trading volume on this specific contract ($924 in 24 hours) suggests limited conviction among traders at current prices.

Key factors:
- Ethereum's current price relative to $750 represents a ~60% decline threshold; current market price and recent volatility trends directly affect probability estimates
- Bitcoin's price trajectory typically leads Ethereum movements; the 52¢ price on Bitcoin below $60k by year-end suggests moderate tail-risk pricing across crypto assets
- Related Ethereum contracts show traders pricing a 35¢ probability for below $1,250 by year-end, indicating a distribution of downside scenarios across different price levels
- Macro conditions including inflation data, interest rate decisions, and equity market performance between May 2026 and January 2027 will substantially influence risk-asset demand
- Regulatory announcements or enforcement actions against Ethereum or major exchanges could rapidly shift market expectations for extreme downside scenarios

Contracts:
- Will Ethereum reach below $1500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Below $1,500.00 — 81¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 60%)
- Will Ethereum reach below $1250.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Below $1,250.00 — 59¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 33%)
- Will Ethereum reach below $1000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Below $1,000.00 — 27¢ Kalshi $365 (weight 7%)
- Will Ethereum reach below $750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Below $750.00 — 18¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T11:20:19.593Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "81% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ethminy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ethereum%20reach%20below%20%24750.00%20by%20Jan%201%2C%202027%20at%2012%3A00AM%20ET
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev