11% — ETH price on Jan 1, 2027 Leader: 1,250 to 1,499.99 at 11% · Kalshi 11% · 9 contracts · $180 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-19 13:27:53 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: The 9% probability reflects that traders across multiple derivative platforms assess the probability of Ethereum trading between $2,125 and $2,249.99 on January 1, 2027 as relatively low. This outcome sits in the lower-to-middle range of possible price scenarios traders are pricing in. The estimate is driven primarily by current ETH price levels and historical volatility patterns; upward movement would require sustained bullish momentum over the next seven months, while a decline would expand the likelihood of lower price bands. Actual ETH price movement through year-end 2026 will be the determining factor, with macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and cryptocurrency market sentiment serving as the primary variables shaping whether this specific price band is reached. Key factors: - The leading contract represents 9 cents per dollar, indicating asymmetric probability mass across twelve price bands rather than a 50/50 scenario - Volume concentration ($4.8k-$4.7k) in the $70k-$79,999 BTC price ranges suggests traders expect broader crypto strength, which historically correlates with ETH outperformance - Seven-month time horizon to resolution (Jan 1, 2027) allows for multiple policy changes, market cycles, and macroeconomic shifts that materially affect cryptocurrency valuations - Current ETH price relative to the $2,125-$2,249.99 band determines whether the band represents appreciation, depreciation, or sideways movement from today's level - The runner-up contract at 8% indicates tight probability clustering across adjacent outcomes, suggesting high uncertainty in final price discovery Contracts: - ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,250 to 1,499.99 — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,750 to 1,999.99 — 9¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 1%) - ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,500 to 1,749.99 — 8¢ Kalshi $135 (weight 75%) - ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,000 to 1,249.99 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 2,250 to 2,499.99 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 999.99 or below — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 2,000 to 2,249.99 — 4¢ Kalshi $43 (weight 24%) - ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 5,000 or above — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-19T13:20:18.589Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ethy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=ETH%20price%20%20on%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev