16% — ETH price on Jan 1, 2027 Leader: 1,750 to 1,999.99 at 16% · Kalshi 16% · 12 contracts · $690 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-07 02:14:17 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes. Why this matters: This represents traders' assessment that Ethereum will trade at or below $999.99 on January 1, 2027—currently assigned 13% probability, with most traders betting on prices between $1,000 and $2,250. The relatively low probability of sub-$1,000 pricing reflects recent price levels and general market expectations of modest appreciation or stability over the next five months. Key drivers include macro interest rate policy, Bitcoin's trajectory (which typically correlates with Ethereum), and institutional adoption trends. The resolution date itself—January 1, 2027—is fixed, but traders will reassess continuously based on Federal Reserve decisions, broader crypto market sentiment, and any major Ethereum network developments or regulatory announcements that could shift long-term value assessments. Key factors: - ETH's current trading price relative to the $999.99 floor and volatility patterns over the past six months - Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and broader macroeconomic conditions through December 2026 - Bitcoin price performance and correlation, as BTC movements typically drive Ethereum valuations - Regulatory announcements or enforcement actions affecting Ethereum or crypto markets between now and year-end - Institutional adoption metrics and Ethereum network activity (transaction volume, staking participation, layer-2 scaling adoption) Contracts: - ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,750 to 1,999.99 — 16¢ Kalshi $527 (weight 76%) - ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 2,000 to 2,249.99 — 11¢ Kalshi $40 (weight 6%) - ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 999.99 or below — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,500 to 1,749.99 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 2,250 to 2,499.99 — 8¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,250 to 1,499.99 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 2,750 to 2,999.99 — 6¢ Kalshi $67 (weight 10%) - ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 2,500 to 2,749.99 — 6¢ Kalshi $55 (weight 8%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-07T01:20:50.027Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ethy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=ETH%20price%20%20on%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev