48% — Will Serbia be Top 10
Kalshi 48% · 20 contracts · $67K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-11 20:02:54 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the chance that Serbia finishes in the top 10 of a competitive ranking, currently estimated at 26% based on market pricing. Serbia's positioning reflects a moderately competitive outlook, sitting below regional neighbors like Romania (19% for top 3) and well below stronger regional performers like Israel (46% for top 5). The probability is shaped primarily by Serbia's historical performance in similar competitions and regional competitive dynamics. Key drivers pushing the probability higher include Serbia's established infrastructure and track record, while factors pushing it lower involve competition from stronger neighboring countries and overall field strength. The resolution of this probability will depend on how final rankings unfold relative to current market expectations and actual competitive performance metrics when results are tallied.

Key factors:
- Serbia's historical ranking performance in previous comparable competitions or benchmarks
- Relative strength of competing countries, particularly from the same region (Romania, Israel, Ukraine)
- Current market pricing for other Balkan or regional competitors (Romania at 19%, Ukraine at 15%) suggests tiered expectations
- Volume and conviction in Kalshi contracts suggests moderate but not overwhelming confidence in the 26% level
- Competitive field composition and whether top positions are dominated by a few strong countries or distributed more broadly

Contracts:
- Will Israel be Top 5?: Israel — 38¢ Kalshi $31K (weight 46%)
- Will Denmark be Top 5?: Denmark — 67¢ Kalshi $11K (weight 16%)
- Will Greece be Top 3?: Greece — 57¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 9%)
- Will France be Top 5?: France — 43¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 7%)
- Will Denmark be Top 10?: Denmark — 86¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 7%)
- Will Finland be Top 5?: Finland — 88¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 4%)
- Will Romania be Top 10?: Romania — 69¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 2%)
- Will Finland be Top 10?: Finland — 97¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 2%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-11T19:50:41.483Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/eurovisionrank
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Serbia%20be%20Top%2010
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev