45% — Evo Morales arrested by...
Leader: June 30 at 45% · Polymarket 45% · 2 contracts · $5K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:43:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that Evo Morales, the former president of Bolivia, will be arrested by June 30, 2026. The 51% probability for a June 30 resolution versus 9% for May 31 suggests traders expect the arrest scenario to remain unresolved in the immediate term but potentially materialize within the broader timeframe. Morales has faced legal challenges and arrest warrants related to alleged statutory rape and human trafficking charges; his political status and ability to evade capture in Bolivia or abroad are central to the outcome. The main factors pushing probabilities are Bolivian government enforcement capacity, Morales's current location, and any changes in his legal status or political immunity. A shift in Bolivia's political leadership, extradition requests, or explicit arrest warrants would be the primary catalyst determining resolution.

Key factors:
- Morales's current physical location and whether he remains within Bolivia's jurisdiction or flees to a country without extradition agreements
- Bolivia's willingness and capacity to pursue arrest, which depends on domestic political stability and control of security forces
- Status of pending legal cases and whether courts issue enforceable arrest warrants before June 30, 2026
- Regional political dynamics and whether neighboring countries provide asylum or reject Morales entry
- Changes in Bolivia's government or judicial leadership that could alter prosecution priorities

Contracts:
- Evo Morales arrested by...?: June 30 — 45¢ Polymarket $110 (weight 2%)
- Evo Morales arrested by...?: May 31 — 19¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 98%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:12.508Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/evo-morales-arrested
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Evo%20Morales%20arrested%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev