35% — Will Democrats win older women (65+) in the exit poll
Kalshi 35% · 13 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 06:31:16 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability estimates the likelihood that Democrats will win the over-65 female vote in the 2026 election based on exit poll results. At 21%, the market implies Republicans are heavily favored to win this demographic. Older women have traditionally leaned Republican in recent cycles, though this group has shown some movement toward Democrats in recent elections. The current low probability reflects both historical voting patterns and recent polling trends. The resolution will depend on final exit poll data released on election night 2026, which will provide the definitive breakdown of how women 65 and older voted. Key dynamics shaping this probability include overall campaign messaging on issues like healthcare and Social Security, turnout rates among older voters, and any major events affecting senior voter sentiment between now and November 2026.

Key factors:
- Historical voting patterns show Republicans consistently winning women 65+ in recent presidential elections by margins of 8-12 percentage points
- Exit poll methodology and sample composition can create variance in results compared to actual vote totals, particularly for demographic subgroups
- Healthcare policy messaging and Social Security proposals are primary issues influencing older women's voting behavior
- Turnout rates among older voters relative to other demographics will affect which candidate's message reaches this group most effectively
- Major policy events or legislative actions between September 2026 and November 2026 could shift senior voter preferences

Contracts:
- Will Democrats win white women in the exit poll?: Democratic party — 25¢ Kalshi $411 (weight 20%)
- Will Republicans win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?: Republican party — 30¢ Kalshi $351 (weight 17%)
- Will Republicans win white women in the exit poll?: Republican party — 25¢ Kalshi $349 (weight 17%)
- Will Democrats win young men (18-29) in the exit poll?: Democratic party — 62¢ Kalshi $314 (weight 15%)
- Will Democrats win white college-educated men in the exit poll?: Democratic party — 8¢ Kalshi $201 (weight 10%)
- Will Democrats win white suburban women in the exit poll?: Democratic party — 6¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 9%)
- Will Republicans win white college-educated men in the exit poll?: Republican party — 14¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 5%)
- Will Republicans win white suburban women in the exit poll?: Republican party — 8¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 5%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-24T09:20:49.515Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/exitpoll
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Democrats%20win%20older%20women%20(65%2B)%20in%20the%20exit%20poll
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev