89% — Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $430,000 Leader: Above $415,000 at 89% · Kalshi 89% · 9 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 08:09:16 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability indicates traders believe there is a 94% chance the median price of existing U.S. homes will exceed $415,000 in July 2026, with declining confidence at higher price points. The assessment reflects recent housing market trends and seasonal patterns in home sales data. Upward pressure comes from persistent inflation, tight housing supply, and demand factors, while downward pressure could emerge from rising interest rates, economic slowdown, or increased housing inventory. The July 2026 median price will be officially released by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system, which publishes this monthly metric. Traders show sharp confidence drop above $440,000 (43% probability), suggesting meaningful uncertainty about sustained price appreciation at higher levels. The narrow 24-hour trading volume on higher-price contracts indicates less active debate on extreme outcomes. Key factors: - Median existing home price has historically averaged around $400,000-$430,000 range; exceeding $415,000 requires modest appreciation from recent baselines - Mortgage interest rates and lending standards directly influence buyer purchasing power and price support levels - Housing inventory levels and new construction data affect supply-side price pressures through June and into July 2026 - Economic indicators released in June-July 2026 (employment, inflation, consumer confidence) will influence buyer demand - Seasonal factors: July is typically mid-year reporting period; any June housing data surprises will inform final price outcomes Contracts: - Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for August 2026 be above $415,000?: Above $415,000 — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for August 2026 be above $420,000?: Above $420,000 — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for August 2026 be above $425,000?: Above $425,000 — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for August 2026 be above $430,000?: Above $430,000 — 53¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for August 2026 be above $435,000?: Above $435,000 — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for August 2026 be above $440,000?: Above $440,000 — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for August 2026 be above $450,000?: Above $450,000 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for August 2026 be above $445,000?: Above $445,000 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T07:21:48.164Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "89% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/exushome Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Median%20Sales%20Price%20of%20Existing%20Homes%20(HOSMEDUSM052N)%20for%20July%202026%20be%20above%20%24430%2C000 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev