89% — Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.7%
Leader: Above 0.0% at 89% · Kalshi 89% · 3 contracts · $10 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:07:33 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0% — 89¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 50%)
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.1%?: Above 0.1% — 4¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 50%)
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.3%?: Above 0.3% — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-30T19:20:12.869Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "89% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ezgdpqoqf
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Euro%20area%20GDP%20growth%20rate%20QoQ%20flash%20for%20Q1%202026%20be%20above%200.7%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev