25% — Who will win the 2026 F1 Championship?
Kalshi 92% · 8 contracts · $44K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 08:37:40 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? — 92¢ Kalshi $25K (weight 58%)
- Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? — 51¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 9%)
- Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? — 20¢ Kalshi $234 (weight 1%)
- Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? — 15¢ Kalshi $723 (weight 2%)
- Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? — 8¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 11%)
- Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? — 7¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 14%)
- Will Gabriel Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? — 3¢ Kalshi $448 (weight 1%)
- Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? — 1¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-27T06:42:54.180Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/f1-champion-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%202026%20F1%20Championship%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev