16% — Who will win the 2026 F1 Championship?
Leader: Spain at 16% · Polymarket 16% · 3 contracts · $1.9M volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Contracts:
- World Cup Winner : France — 16¢ Polymarket $584K (weight 31%)
- World Cup Winner : Spain — 16¢ Polymarket $437K (weight 24%)
- World Cup Winner : Germany — 5¢ Polymarket $833K (weight 45%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:11.943Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/f1-champion-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%202026%20F1%20Championship%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev