48% — Will Mercedes AMG Motorsport win the F1 Constructors Championship
Kalshi 48% · 2 contracts · $2K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 07:14:07 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates that Mercedes AMG Motorsport is given roughly a 31% chance to win the 2026 Formula 1 Constructors Championship. The current assessment reflects Mercedes' recent performance trajectory, their technical capabilities in responding to regulation changes, and competitive pressure from teams like Red Bull, Ferrari, and McLaren. Key factors influencing this probability include Mercedes' success with new power unit regulations, driver performance consistency, and mid-season performance trends. The primary uncertainty will be resolved through actual race results throughout the 2026 season, with particular attention to early races that typically establish competitive positioning and the summer break progress reports that reveal technical development effectiveness. Teams' upgrades and performance adjustments during the season will provide continuous data to reassess this probability.

Key factors:
- Mercedes' power unit performance relative to competitors under 2026 technical regulations
- Constructor championship points differential compared to top rivals after first quarter of season races
- Reliability of Mercedes' new hybrid power unit design compared to Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull
- Driver consistency between Lewis Hamilton and the second Mercedes driver in scoring points
- Effectiveness of Mercedes' mid-season upgrades as evidenced by performance gains between summer break and final races

Contracts:
- Will Mercedes AMG Motorsport win the F1 Constructors Championship?: Mercedes AMG Motorsport — 84¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 75%)
- Will Ferrari win the F1 Constructors Championship?: Ferrari — 12¢ Kalshi $568 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:51.935Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/f1constructors
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Mercedes%20AMG%20Motorsport%20win%20the%20F1%20Constructors%20Championship
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev