47% — What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team Leader: Red Bull Racing at 47% · Kalshi 47% · 6 contracts · $839 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-27 07:06:41 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: The market currently assigns a 60% probability that Max Verstappen remains with Red Bull Racing for his next F1 contract, with McLaren as the leading alternative at 24%. This reflects Verstappen's established position as Red Bull's lead driver and the team's recent competitive performance, though McLaren's recent improvements and potential driver market shifts create meaningful uncertainty. The probability would rise if Red Bull secures major upgrades or championship success, and would fall if McLaren gains pace or if public statements from Verstappen suggest dissatisfaction. Key resolution events include the 2026-2027 contract announcements and driver market movements during the off-season, typically occurring between September and December. Current low trading volume on the Red Bull outcome suggests limited recent confidence changes, while McLaren contract volume indicates active speculation about potential moves. Key factors: - Red Bull Racing held Verstappen through 2025-2026 with stated multi-year commitments; contract renewal or expiration timing determines when he becomes available - McLaren's 2024-2026 performance trajectory and driver lineup decisions (Norris, Piastri) directly affect appeal as an alternative destination - Verstappen's public statements regarding team satisfaction, technical direction, or competitive ambitions would shift market expectations materially - 2026 F1 power unit changes (new engine regulations) create technical uncertainty that could favor or disadvantage Red Bull relative to competitors - Driver market cascade effects: changes to Hamilton, Leclerc, or other top drivers' team assignments indirectly constrain or expand Verstappen's realistic options Contracts: - What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team?: Red Bull Racing — 47¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team?: Mercedes — 24¢ Kalshi $496 (weight 59%) - What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team?: McLaren — 12¢ Kalshi $210 (weight 25%) - What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team?: Retires / No Team — 6¢ Kalshi $120 (weight 14%) - What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team?: Ferrari — 4¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 2%) - What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team?: Aston Martin — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-27T06:20:50.983Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/f1nextteam Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20be%20Max%20Verstappen's%20next%20F1%20team Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev