85% — Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is restored for US customers before Jun 20, 2026
Leader: Before Jul 31, 2026 at 85% · Kalshi 85% · 6 contracts · $151K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 22:06:21 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Fable 5 access will be restored for US customers sometime before July 1, 2026, with a 64% chance assigned to this outcome. Markets are pricing in roughly a two-in-three likelihood that restoration occurs within the next two weeks. The pricing gap between the June 20 contract (40¢) and the July 1 contract (66¢) suggests traders believe most restoration activity, if it occurs, would happen in late June rather than immediately. The June 15 contract pricing near 11¢ indicates very low odds of restoration by tomorrow. Key drivers include the technical scope of the access issue, the priority level assigned by developers, and any public statements about timeline. Resolution will depend on whether official channels report access has been restored and when that announcement occurs.

Key factors:
- The June 15 contract trades at 11¢, indicating traders assign minimal probability to restoration within the next 24 hours, suggesting either technical complexity or lower urgency
- The 26-percentage-point spread between June 20 (40¢) and July 1 (66¢) contracts indicates most expected restoration activity clusters in late June rather than early or mid-month
- Kalshi's 24-hour volume ($2,570 for the June 20 contract) is lower than earlier-date contracts, potentially reflecting reduced trader conviction or lower interest in the near-term window
- The definition explicitly requires reporting by 'any of the Source Agencies,' meaning the resolution depends on official communication rather than user reports or informal indicators
- No scheduled maintenance windows or public timeline statements have been referenced, leaving restoration dependent on unannounced developer decisions

Contracts:
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is restored for US customers before Jul 31, 2026?: Before Jul 31, 2026 — 85¢ Kalshi $16K (weight 11%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is restored for US customers before Jul 24, 2026?: Before Jul 24, 2026 — 85¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 1%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is restored for US customers before Jul 17, 2026?: Before Jul 17, 2026 — 79¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 5%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is restored for US customers before Jul 10, 2026?: Before Jul 10, 2026 — 61¢ Kalshi $28K (weight 19%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is restored for US customers before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026 — 33¢ Kalshi $58K (weight 38%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is restored for US customers before Jun 27, 2026?: Before Jun 27, 2026 — 11¢ Kalshi $40K (weight 27%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T21:20:49.624Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "85% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fablerestore-27
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20it%20be%20reported%20by%20any%20of%20the%20Source%20Agencies%20that%20general%20access%20to%20Fable%205%20is%20restored%20for%20US%20customers%20before%20Jun%2020%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev