29% — Will Patea win the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election
Kalshi 29% · 3 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 14:34:09 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects betting market expectations that Patea will win the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election in Samoa at 12%, making Patea a significant underdog. The relatively low probability likely reflects limited market information about Patea's campaign organization, local support base, or political backing compared to frontrunner Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale, who is priced at 29 cents. The by-election outcome will ultimately depend on voter turnout in the Falealili 1 constituency, candidate campaign effectiveness, and local political dynamics in that specific electoral district. The election itself will resolve all uncertainty around these candidates, though the exact date and any campaign developments between now and voting should clarify which candidate has genuine on-the-ground support.

Key factors:
- Patea trades at 3 cents on Kalshi with only $14 in 24-hour volume, indicating minimal market liquidity and potentially thin information flowing to traders on this candidate's viability
- Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale is the clear market favorite at 29 cents, suggesting traders view this candidate as substantially stronger than Patea based on available information
- Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen trades at 6 cents with the highest volume ($150 in 24h), indicating this candidate receives more trader attention than Patea despite similar pricing
- The four-candidate spread (Auseugalelei, Fuaolemoli, Aperila, and others above Patea) suggests market participants have differentiated views on candidate strength rather than treating outcomes as equally likely
- Low overall volume across all contracts ($227 total 24h) suggests limited information discovery in the market and potential for probability shifts as new campaign or polling data emerges

Contracts:
- Will Tuiloma Laneselota Lameko win the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election?: Tuiloma Laneselota Lameko — 3¢ Kalshi $771 (weight 65%)
- Will Aperila Vaa Tiai win the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election?: Aperila Vaa Tiai — 80¢ Kalshi $392 (weight 33%)
- Will Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale win the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election?: Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale — 3¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 1%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-09-21T14:20:50.813Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "29% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/falealili1
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Patea%20win%20the%202026%20Falealili%201%20by-election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev