58% — Will FanDuel App Downloads for August 2026 be above 100
Leader: Above 30 at 58% · Kalshi 58% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 23:35:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability represents the likelihood that FanDuel app downloads will exceed 100 million during August 2026. The 52% probability for downloads above 60 million suggests modest confidence in mid-range performance, while only 5% probability above 100 million indicates significant skepticism about reaching very high download volumes. Download numbers typically fluctuate based on sports calendar events, marketing spend, new feature releases, and competitive activity in the mobile sports betting market. The resolution of this question depends on official download data reported through app store analytics by early September 2026, when August's complete metrics become available. Current market pricing suggests traders view 60-80 million downloads as the most likely range, with the much lower probability at 100+ implying either skepticism about FanDuel's growth trajectory or historical benchmarks showing such volumes are uncommon.

Key factors:
- Historical FanDuel August download data from 2024-2025 will establish baseline expectations for seasonal patterns
- Sports betting app download volume correlates with major sports events; NFL preseason and late summer betting activity affect August timing
- Competitive landscape includes DraftKings, BetMGM, and others launching promotions or new features that could shift market share
- App store algorithm changes and paid marketing campaigns directly influence download acquisition rates during any given month
- Data source reliability matters: app analytics platforms (Sensor Tower, App Annie) may differ in methodology or have reporting delays affecting final counts

Contracts:
- Will FanDuel App Downloads for September 2026 be above 30 ?: Above 30 — 58¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will FanDuel App Downloads for September 2026 be above 40 ?: Above 40 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will FanDuel App Downloads for September 2026 be above 45 ?: Above 45 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-11T19:20:52.836Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "58% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fanduelapp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20FanDuel%20App%20Downloads%20for%20August%202026%20be%20above%20100
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev